Gonzalo Varela Profile picture
Jan 27, 2022 9 tweets 10 min read Read on X
With @StateBank_Pak releasing dissaggregated #trade data for December, we have a picture of the full 2021, which, despite #supply #chain disruptions worldwide, was 'good' for #Pakistan. Short thread below:
1\ #exports grew by 30.1% in 2021 w.r.t. 2020, with a strong pick up in merchandise, but also substantive in services.

#trade #Pakistan
2\ To be sure, in #real terms, #Pakistan's #exports remain below its local max in 2011. So, no 'record exports' if we talk real terms and not values.
3\ #Export growth was widespread by destination when focusing on the top 8.

#trade #Pakistan
4\ And also by #sector, with #textiles and #garments leading the way.

#trade #Pakistan
5\ In #services, it was a very good year for #knowledge #intensive services #exports, led by #ICT and other #business services.
6\ #Import growth outperformed #export growth, registering an increase in values of 49.5% in 2021 w.r.t. 2020.
7\ A substantial chunk of this increase is because of increases in #commodity #prices: mainly petroleum, edible oils and cotton.

#trade #Pakistan
8\ Sustaining #export growth will be crucial to reduce external vulnerabilities that arise from increasing #trade deficits. More #productivity, #credit for productive #investments, and better #incentives, will help. Read more here: thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4fe3cf6… #trade #Pakistan

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More from @gonwei

Jul 2, 2023
Today's my last day in #Pakistan. So I'll close with a thread on #trade trends. With @StateBank_Pak data recently released for 11 out of 12 months of FY23.

Here's a summary: 🧵👇
1) Exports declined in July-May FY23 by 9.4% relative to same period of FY22. Largest contraction for #goods. Services exports actually expanded by 3.4%.
Role of restrictions to import inputs may explain the difference.
2) By destination: #exports to the top 5 markets fell during July-May FY23 (vs FY24), including USA, China, UK, Germany and UAE.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 25, 2023
. @StateBank_Pak has released disaggregated #trade data for #Pakistan, for the first half of FY23. Some analysis on main trends in 🧵👇👇
1) #Pakistan's #exports have declined in H1 FY23 relative to H1 FY22 by 4%. The fall is driven by goods #exports that fell by 5.8%. in million USD
2) By #destination, the largest #export contractions are observed to the USA, China, the UK and the UAE.
#Pakistan Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 15, 2023
#Pakistan is going thru a complex #macro situation. At its heart is one symptom: the #CAD. Because the CAD has been perennial, this long-standing symptom translated into large foreign liabilities. Short 🧵👇
a) The #CAD shows that #Pakistan has been consuming beyond what it produces. At its heart, there’s another perennial deficit: the fiscal deficit.
b) To fix the #CAD, compressing #imports is futile (e.g. with the flood levy). You need either to reduce the fiscal deficit, or increase private saving well beyond investment. 👇
Read 10 tweets
Jan 13, 2023
In our latest #growth report for #Pakistan, we examined, among other themes, the role of #FDI in the country. How much #Pakistan attracts, how much it could attract, the impact on #productivity and on #jobs.

A short 🧵👇

openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/3…
1) #FDI is a useful source of financing for #developing countries. It is stable, and typically associated w/ #export growth, #job creation and #productivity upgrading. Does that all of that apply to #FDI in #Pakistan? Let's see...
2) #Pakistan's #FDI inflows/GDP (in green below) have been historically low and declining. Image
Read 11 tweets
Oct 27, 2022
We have now 3 months of disaggregated #trade data for FY23 in #Pakistan. Visible deceleration both on #exports and #imports. Some key elements in 🧵below:
#Exports grew in Jul-Sep 23 versus Jul-Sep 22 by 5.3%. Slightly faster growth in #goods than in #services.

#Pakistan
By destination: in general, expansions, but contractions of shipments to #China, to #UK and to #UAE.

#exports #Pakistan
Read 11 tweets
Aug 4, 2022
Now we have dissaggregated @StateBank_Pak data on #Pakistan's #trade performance for the full of the FY22.

This thread will show performance in #values. not #volumes. Keep in mind FY22 was extraordinary in terms of high #prices, both for #imports and #exports. 👇👇👇🧵
1\ #Exports reached record highs, both #goods and #services, increasing by 26.6 and 17.1% respectively w.r.t. FY21. Good export prices and a decent #export response played a role here. Note: June 2022 is preliminary. Figures are Jul-Jun FY22 and
2\ #Pakistan #export growth was generalized by main destination. Particularly noticeable are increases in shipments to #USA and to #China - the two largest destinations.
Read 10 tweets

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