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Arvind Virmani Profile picture
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Feb 24 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Better late than never. We all make mistakes. The critical test will be how German policy on #China changes (not Russia policy, which is fairly predictable)
2/eu Same test for EU, 👇🏽is predictable
3/eu The lesson is applicable to India-China! Remember Military strength requires both funds and Partnerships (to get technology & advanced equipment at lowest cost)
4/eu True that (Welcome to the Real World of the 21st century)

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More from @dravirmani

Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Feb 24
@Special relationship" is a #delusion that Indians must #shun if they are to defend their Nation against Autocratic nations which have been looking for a way to destroy them for 75 years
Make no mistake, Putin's Damocles sword is now hanging over India's head. We don't have the luxury of talking🤐, we have to plan, decide, and act!
There are only "overlapping interests," between any two countries; When the overlap gets smaller & smaller, expect foreign policies to change; don't #delude yourself about friendship, Bhai Bhai & Jigri Dosti
Read 12 tweets
Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Feb 23
#PIP says: “#FOE for media includes, the freedom to censor.”
#PIP says: “The fourth estate is a guarantor of our freedom and democracy, believe it or not”
3/foe And #FOE in #US also means the freedom to censor/self-censor. So Indian media meets the highest quality standards in the World 😇
Read 4 tweets
Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Feb 22
True, but there is a fine line between friendly advice and #Information #Warfare. My friends advise me privately and politely, not criticise me on social media, or give me advice on TV interviews! Those who did the latter are no longer my friends 🤡.
#PIP says: “We 😍🥰😘🐕🐩🦮”
3/pip #PIP: “The concept of “Friendship” in IR has been the bane of Indian foreign policy; Indians get emotionally committed to it, while great powers use it as an instrument of moral/intellectual coercion!” Asymmetric tests of “logical consistency” are another tool of coercion
Read 11 tweets
Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Feb 21
#Hypocrisy is the best policy in a #unipolar #world, but it wont work in the “multipolar transition” to a “#Tripolar #World with a #multipolar rim”!
The “#Bipolar #World with a #Multipolar #Rim,” is already here. The Russian conflict with Ukraine, wont change this. #High #Tech #Decoupling & #partial #economic #decoupling from China is a necessary for survival of free market, open democracies.
2/hwo The #Hypocritical #World #Order(#HWO): “The very people who want pragmatism on #Afghanistan, don’t want pragmatism on #Myanmar”
Read 6 tweets
Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Jan 24
Which is the greater military power: #PRC with 60,000 troops massed on India’s border(for ~2 years) or #RF with 100,000 troops massed on Ukraine border(for ~ 2 months)?
2/rus #Russian massing of troops around Ukraine is not just a message to #USA and #Europe, but also to #China and #India, not to write off its Military power & ability to use it; even though Russia’s economic power is now much less than that of USA, EU, China, India.🧐🤔
3/rus The #Russian’s have learned from the #PRC aggression against India in 2020, which rapidly lost credibility after Galwan. They have done everything to ensure that the threat of invasion is credible enough to achieve their coercive objectives without fighting.
Read 57 tweets
Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Nov 18, 2021
Progress on restoring April 2020 status quo ante in Ladakh, was interrupted by IA thwarting 2 aggressive PLA patrols across LOC & Xi's fear of ultra-nationalist reaction (before elevation to top pantheon of CCP), resumes. 60% probability of PLA, Hot-spring withdrawal, by Dec 31
2/pla mea.gov.in/press-releases…
3/pla Traditionally #PLA #Creeping #Acquisition has been attempted between the dotted lines(👇🏼). Since August 2020 all such attempts have been #successfully #resisted. All reported construction is in areas under PLA control for decades(ie btwn top line & next dotted line)
Read 5 tweets

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