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Jan 24 • 57 tweets • 37 min read
Which is the greater military power: #PRC with 60,000 troops massed on India’s border(for ~2 years) or #RF with 100,000 troops massed on Ukraine border(for ~ 2 months)?
2/rus #Russian massing of troops around Ukraine is not just a message to #USA and #Europe, but also to #China and #India, not to write off its Military power & ability to use it; even though Russia’s economic power is now much less than that of USA, EU, China, India.🧐🤔
3/rus The #Russian’s have learned from the #PRC aggression against India in 2020, which rapidly lost credibility after Galwan. They have done everything to ensure that the threat of invasion is credible enough to achieve their coercive objectives without fighting.
4/rus #RF
5/rus Sean White "A smart man learns from his mistakes, a wise man learns from the mistakes of others," and a fool never learns from anyone's mistakes!
6/rus I give it a better than even chance (51% probability) that it's Maskirovka (Masking => military deception, widening to include denial and deception)
7/rus And have no illusions, #PLA, #PRC will carefully study and learn from the #Russian experience wrt #Ukraine. That's the nature of knowledge accumulation! #CCP may keep mouthing #Sun #Tsu, but they have carefully studied all relevant conflicts in 20th C (as has Russia)
8/rus Raising probability from 51% to 55%, of no full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine (drawing from lessons of PLA aggression against India in 2020 & credible establishment by #Russia that it’s willing & able to pay cost of using force, to achieve its geopolitical objectives)
9/rus “Putin’s aim appears clear; reversing the consequences of the Soviet collapse, splitting NATO & renegotiating the geostrategic settlement that ended the Cold War. It entails defending incumbent authoritarian regimes & undermining democracies.” chanakyaforum.com/warmongering-i…
10/rus I reduce my probability of Russia launching a full scale invasion of Ukraine from 45% to 40% (Ie raise probability of NO hot war from 55% to 60% ) based on 👇🏽
11/rus A Russia expert, confirming my speculation
12/rus Good 🧵 on #Russia-#China relations
13/rus More on #SinoRussian #geopolitical partnership
14/rus Yes a functional no-war pact, plus…….
15/rus
16/rus Will #Russian troops stay on the border with #Ukraine, just as the #Chinese troops have stayed on the #Indo-#Tibet border for 2 years? Russia & China, learning from each other? 😎🤔
17/rus #President #Putin of the #Russian #Federation
18/rus A full fledged attack is unlikely: More likely, either (1) Some sort of siege or blockade to prevent transport of goods or people in and out of #Ukraine, (2) #Salami #Slicing/#Creeping #Acquisition/#Incremental #Imperialism, designed to put onus of escalation on Ukraine
19/rus A possible approach to incremental imperialism, get Belarus to take some provocative action. We have seen this #dirty #game emerging in our neighbourhood with #Chipak alliance (in all but name)
20/rus Apropos what I said in last few tweets
21/rus #Sanctions: Two (or three) can play the game (🧵)
22/rus #Ruchi = #Russia - #China
23/rus #Russia is back on the World stage with a bang: Putin’s Russia is now the Center of attention for every developed country’s political leaders, intellectuals and foreign policy expert. He has succeeded in his objectives, its just a matter of administering the “coup de gras”
24/rus “Threat of use of force” is an essential element of #Grey #War. Threat has to be #credible, for “weaker” opponent(s) to concede. India did not concede to PRC threat(2020), bcs it had upper hand in Himalayas. PLA is now trying to rectify its deficiency & will be back!
25/rus 🧵 👆🏼
26/rus #Xi #Jinping knows #Putin’s #Russia-#Ukraine playbook. Its very similar to the playbook #PRC used against #India!
27/rus Useful preview of how #PRC may start its attack on #Taiwan, Vietnam or India, in the future.
28/rus And dont forget the fifth columnists of the #CCP infiltrated by #PRC into every neighbouring country. A Russian-Ukraine preview👇🏽we must all learn from(🧵)
29/rus The overlapping of 👇🏽date with the rumoured date/day of invasion(hot war) is not a coincidence, its a well planned strategy of #GreyWar
30/rus Remember the #CCP shares the #Leninist & #Stalinist legacy with the Russian communists, and it is therefore relevant to understanding both the #PRC and present day #Russian #Federation.
31/rus Interesting 🧵, which may also have lessons for us, wrt #PLA, #PRC.
32/rus Another lesson in #Geopolitics, post the unipolar moment (and don’t think that, “free democracies”, never do this sort of thing) : 🧵
33/rus 21st C #GreyWar aggression by totalitarian States require multi-level deterrence: Lowest level deterrence has to b provided by each cntry. Regional partners are critical at next level fr facing asymmety. USA can only provide high level deterrence(not fight at every level)
34/rus This is one significant option Russia has, which makes a direct cross-border attack by Russian forces on Ukraine, unlikely. Russian troops would merely keep up the pressure on other borders ( without attacking) so that Ukrainian troops are not reallocated to this region.
35/rus Read this along with previous tweet. The probability of direct Russian attack across the border is very low. Russia will support such 👇🏽forces and wait for Ukrainian forces to make the mistake of attacking Russian troops!
36/rus A powerful Nuclear #Russia, which has divided EU & paralysed NATO, doesn’t suit PRC either, which wants ALL its neighbours to kowtow to itself. PRC’s first phase objective is a #G2 (2035), followed by a (tacit) G1 (2050). Russia and India politely disagree! EU is 🙈🙉🙊
37/rus But will EU learn anything from this event?
38/rus The latter, as this thread has repeatedly written. Its a 21st century #Grey #War, with old and new tactics: #Information #War, #Salami #Slicing, #mercenaries, #insurgencies, #coups, nuclear threats, and everything you can think of, short of direct, full, frontal attack!
39/rus It’s as important to understand the psychology of your partners, as it is to understand the psychology of your sworn enemies. Frankly, this👇🏽is weird (coming on top of nuclear exercises around Ukraine and alleged posting of tactical nukes in Belorussia)
40/rus 3/4th of Putin’s objective achieved. He wants to be treated by USA & allies, as leader of Great Power on par with Xi(she). The 1/4th missing part is how to ensure that this is not one-off: Suggestion: Make it an annual summit to discuss European security & related issues!
41/rus Sorry, I disagree. If Putin establishes suzerainty over Ukraine(w opposition leader in jail?), the next targets are likely to be other nominally democratic, Autocracies like Hungary & Serbia(?), which US & EU wont support as they are not up to democratic standards!
42/rus Sorry, I disagree; The rise in oil & gas prices, is more than paying for the increased expenditure on armed forces on highest alert, and the ongoing #Grey #War (Cyber, war, Info war, insurgency, mercenaries, etc) is far less costly than a conventional (hot) war.
43/rus I still think that a Russian attack on KIEV or direct full scale attack across northern Ukrainian border is unlikely. It will be #Grey #War on Donbas👇🏼, carried out by irregulars, backed by Russian forces (fire-power, naval & air power) Image
44/rus This 🧵adds more facts/analysis to what I have repeatedly asserted in my thread. That a direct Russian attack on Ukraine is highly unlikely, & what we will see is broad based #Grey #War using different modes & instruments, below the threshold of conventional hot war)
45/rus Direct consequence of “India-Soviet friendship treaty (august 1971)”. Missing from this story, is that US president Nixon & Secretary of State Kissinger,in Beijing, egged Mao & Chou en lai to attack India on border, but Moscow sent a message, “dont try”
46/rus There is no doubt that “Putin’s Russia” poses a threat to Europe, just as “Xi’s PRC” poses a threat to Asia. Question is, what are European countries doing to defend themselves against Russia, & Asian countries doing to defend against China (moral lectures don’t count👎🏼)?
47/rus #CCPapologists, #CCPcollaborators and #CCPusefulIdiots have been having a field day since the anniversary of Nixon’s China trip and the Ukraine Crisis, developing fanciful fables of how to split China & Russia. The reality 👇🏽
48/rus #Russia Putin’s evolving view of #NATO (🧵)
49/rus #Truth #hurts, “lazy moralising and intellectual superiority complex”, are not substitutes for rigorous analysis of historical facts! First the data/facts, then the analysis, third the policy, finally the views!
50/rus #SciMe (=Scientific Method) first the facts, 2nd analysis, 3rd policy, 4th views. Historical data is sometimes so dependent on the views of the presenter, that its V imp to get the “facts” from divergent, opposing viewers! 🧵
51/rus This is the Donbas region, not Kyiv, any other city, or border in West/North Ukraine. I said that the latter is very unlikely, and Donbas expansionism would be done by Russian proxies relieved of policing duties by Russian troops, & backed, but not led, by Russian troops.
52/rus From #GreyWar to #HybridWar in Donbas areas, which are not yet under the control of Russian proxies: indiatoday.in/world/story/ce…
53/rus I truly feel sorry for Ukrainians who have died due to Russia, but I have waited 52yrs for US to acknowledge that a CENTO/SEATO “ally” committed genocide of Bengalis killing 1/2 to 1 mi people & raping 2-500,000 women(nytimes.com/2013/09/29/boo…). Potus knew-Truth Commission?
54/rus It’s no longer about what India says or doesn’t, This signals the arrival of an Era of “Might is Right”, which will have serious consequences for our National Security & the cost to defend it. A full revaluation of our National Security doctrine & Strategy is warranted.
55/rus
56/rus Observe carefully, as some of these tactics will show up in the PLA play book for attack on India & Taiwan
57/rus #Beware The #PLA has been planning for full scale attack on India & Taiwan for much longer than a year (on direct orders from Xi)

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More from @dravirmani

Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Feb 22
True, but there is a fine line between friendly advice and #Information #Warfare. My friends advise me privately and politely, not criticise me on social media, or give me advice on TV interviews! Those who did the latter are no longer my friends 🤡.
#PIP says: “We 😍🥰😘🐕🐩🦮”
3/pip #PIP: “The concept of “Friendship” in IR has been the bane of Indian foreign policy; Indians get emotionally committed to it, while great powers use it as an instrument of moral/intellectual coercion!” Asymmetric tests of “logical consistency” are another tool of coercion
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Feb 21
#Hypocrisy is the best policy in a #unipolar #world, but it wont work in the “multipolar transition” to a “#Tripolar #World with a #multipolar rim”!
The “#Bipolar #World with a #Multipolar #Rim,” is already here. The Russian conflict with Ukraine, wont change this. #High #Tech #Decoupling & #partial #economic #decoupling from China is a necessary for survival of free market, open democracies.
2/hwo The #Hypocritical #World #Order(#HWO): “The very people who want pragmatism on #Afghanistan, don’t want pragmatism on #Myanmar”
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Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Nov 18, 2021
Progress on restoring April 2020 status quo ante in Ladakh, was interrupted by IA thwarting 2 aggressive PLA patrols across LOC & Xi's fear of ultra-nationalist reaction (before elevation to top pantheon of CCP), resumes. 60% probability of PLA, Hot-spring withdrawal, by Dec 31
2/pla mea.gov.in/press-releases…
3/pla Traditionally #PLA #Creeping #Acquisition has been attempted between the dotted lines(👇🏼). Since August 2020 all such attempts have been #successfully #resisted. All reported construction is in areas under PLA control for decades(ie btwn top line & next dotted line)
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Oct 1, 2021
#India-#US bilateral military ties will continue to broaden and deepen, based on the overlap of national security interests!
2/indus #Inda-#US B2B is critical to long term cooperation in defence production and weapons development: mybs.in/2Zi8awM
3/indus 🧵
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Oct 1, 2021
An efficient #GST with high boyancy, needs uniform 15% rate on 3/4th of Goods & services, exemption(0%) on basic food, drugs, health services & education(~1/10 of G&S), & higher rates (avg 30% inclusive of cess) on cigarettes & Autos(~1/10th). Drop higher revenue/rate obsession
2/gst The #GSTcouncil's obsession with immediate revenue raising by increasing rates, is damaging macro economy, by negatively impacting MSME/informal employment, income & consumption, and doing long term damage to inclusive growth and sustained higher revenues for development
3/gst Though in normal circumstances I recommend revenue neutral reform, in current depressed environment, revenue negative reform of GST is preferable to revenue positive GST reform, because it will provide a demand stimulus which will quickly recover the short term revenue loss
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Sep 27, 2021
52/ru My view: "All farm subsidies must eventually be #integrated into a direct cash transfer (#DCT) system, which delivers subsidy directly into the mobile wallet of every farmer, farm laborer & farm household!"
indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
53/ru #Agri #productivity #CO2
54/ru #Rural #Agricultural: Does Rule of law matter to #LIMPs? Regulatory framework for land: esamskriti.com/e/National-Aff…
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