Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Feb 25 19 tweets 10 min read
JUST IN: #Russia "not moving on #Kyiv as fast as they anticipated they would do...meeting more resistance than they expected" per a senior US defense official

But official says Russian troops still advancing
Signs #Russia is splitting some of its troops advancing from the south into NE & NW directions, per a senior US defense official
Indications #Russia|n forces trying to take a key dam, power plant - possibly including #cyberattacks vs the power plant, per a senior US defense official
NEW: #Russia amphibious assault is underway to the west of #Mariupol from the Sea of #Azov - "potentially putting thousands of naval infantry ashore" per a senior US defense official
"There is great resistance from the #Ukrainians than the #Russia|ns expected" per a senior US defense official

"They are fighting for their country"
"In general, the #Russia|ns have lost a little bit of their momentum...a good indicator of that is that no ppltn centers have been taken" per a senior US defense official

US assesses #Kremlin has not been able to establish air superiority-#Ukraine air defense still functional
#Russia|n assault has involved +200 missile launches so far - mix of ballistic & cruise, per a senior US defense official

Some missiles have hot civilian, residential areas of #Ukraine BUT US cannot say if those areas were targeted deliberately
NEW: "We assess they [#Russia] have about one-third of their combat power [of what was amassed at the borders] in #Ukraine" per a senior US defense official
Despite pushback from #Ukraine, #Russia still has "significant combat power" at its disposal, per a senior US defense official
"By & large, the bulk of the targets [for #Russia] continue to be military related, targeting #Ukrainian defensive capabilities, targeting their supply & logistics capabilities, targeting their air & missile defense" per a senior US defense official
As of now, #Ukraine command & control "is intact" per a senior US defense official

"We have a general sense that they [#Russia] are not moving on #Kyiv as fast as they anticipated doing"
US not seeing much action from #Russia|n forces in Western #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official
US seeing tens of thousands of ppl leaving #Ukraine, many headed to #Poland

"Several hundred of those were American citizens or dual nationals" per a senior US defense official
"Our assessment is that the western part of the country [#Ukraine] has been largely undisturbed" by the #Russia|n offensive to this point, per a senior US defense official
#Russia still holding back - it seems - on deploying some capabilities -- "We haven't seen a full-scale effort in electronic warfare" per a senior US defense official
"We have been very clear we continue to stand w/#Ukraine" per a senior US defense official "We're still looking for ways to assist Ukraine, its ability to defend itself"
#Russia|n goals - "Mr. #Putin's designs are to eliminate the independence & sovereignty of #Ukraine...to remove the democratically-elected gvt & install his own" per a senior US defense official
Weaponization of refugees - "We've already seen #Belarus do that..." per a senior US defense official, calling that tactic something that Washington is watching

#Russia-#Ukraine
#Russia|n attack on #Ukraine-"We still believe they are in what they would consider initial phases" per a senior US defense official

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More from @jseldin

Feb 26
ICYMI: Latest US assessment of #Russia invasion of #Ukraine

Per a senior defense official, the assault continues along 3 axis from:

- south to north
- north central to south
- north east to south

But it has not been as easy as the Russians expected
US seeing "indications of viable Ukrainian resistance" per a senior defense official

"We continue to believe, based on what we have observed, that this resistance is greater than what the Russians expected"
"We have indications that the #Russia|ns are increasingly frustrated by their lack of momentum over the last 24 hours, particularly in the north parts of #Ukraine" per the senior US defense official
Read 13 tweets
Feb 25
Happening now - @PentagonPresSec briefs media Image
Activation of @NATO Response Forces -"the #UnitedStates is ready to lean forward as much as possible" per @PentagonPresSec

No details yet about which units will be deployed as part of that forces
"We see clear indications that the #Ukrainian armed forces are fighting back & bravely defending their country...there have been measures of success in that regard" per @PentagonPresSec

"But it's a dynamic, fluid situation..."

#Russia-#Ukraine
Read 11 tweets
Feb 25
Happening now: @NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg talks to reporters following Summit of NATO Heads of State & Government
"The Ukrainian forces are fighting bravely & are able to inflict damage on the #Russia|n forces" per @NATO @jensstoltenberg

"The message from NATO leaders...we are there to support #Ukraine" he says - also #Sweden #Finland #EU
NATO allies continuing to provide military, other support to #Ukraine, per @NATO's @jensstoltenberg

Says allies are "very committed"
Read 14 tweets
Feb 25
BREAKING: @NATO activating defense plans - " to prepare ourselves to respond to a range of contingencies & secure Alliance territory, including by drawing on our response forces" per statement
"We are now making significant addt'l defensive deployments of forces to the eastern part of the Alliance" per @NATO

"We will make all deployments necessary to ensure strong & credible deterrence & defence...measures are & remain preventive, proportionate & non-escalatory"
.@NATO statement calls #Russia warns #Ukraine "the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades"

"We condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, enabled by #Belarus"
Read 5 tweets
Feb 25
Is #Russia's war against #Ukraine the work of a madman?

Pre-invasion, @POTUS described Vladimir #Putin's words bizarre & twisted

@SecBlinken said "deeply disturbing"

Others said Putin looked unhinged

But current/former intel officials say wait... 🧵
voanews.com/a/putin-s-gamb…
Current/former officials who spoke to @VOANews warn against writing #Russia's #Putin off as a leader-turned- crackpot

As recently as last year, William Burns, then the nominee to lead @CIA, warned lawmakers against underestimating Putin
Most assessments tend to see #Russia's #Putin as a very rational actor - ruthless, cunning and dangerous, with an appetite for risk
Read 11 tweets
Feb 24
NEW: #Russia continuing to flow in additional elements/troops into #Ukraine - headed to #Kyiv #Kharkhiv & #Kherson, per a senior defense official

More than 160 missiles have been launched so far

Some Russian soldiers also appear to have moved thru #Chernobyl area
"We still have no evidence of #Odessa right now being occupied or attacked" per a senior US defense official
#Russia|n troops - "They have gotten closer to #Kyiv" over past few hours, per a senior US defense official

Indications of active fighting in #Kharkhiv and arrival of more Russian airborne troops there
Read 8 tweets

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