Thread by @jseldin

Is #Russia's war against #Ukraine the work of a madman?

Pre-invasion, @POTUS described Vladimir #Putin's words bizarre & twisted

@SecBlinken said "deeply disturbing"

Others said Putin looked unhinged

But current/former intel officials say wait... 🧵
voanews.com/a/putin-s-gamb…

Current/former officials who spoke to @VOANews warn against writing #Russia's #Putin off as a leader-turned- crackpot

As recently as last year, William Burns, then the nominee to lead @CIA, warned lawmakers against underestimating Putin

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1364617626077511693?s=20&t=Q_rKhlzrBSzO9MBc1uXTSg

Most assessments tend to see #Russia's #Putin as a very rational actor - ruthless, cunning and dangerous, with an appetite for risk

"I have seen nothing to indicate that Vladimir Putin isn't anything but the same coldly calculating KGB operative he's always been" @danielhoffmanDC told @VOANews

"I don't think he's made any mistakes yet" having overseen wins so in #Chechnya, #Georgia, #Crimea & #Syria

So what led to #Putin's decision to invade #Ukraine now?

@danielhoffmanDC & other former intel officials say he saw a confluence of trends & events that spelled opportunity

Specifically, former intel officials/experts point to 3 main factors:
1-perceived US/@NATO weakness, lack of appetite for conflict (see #Afghanistan)
2-political divisions in the US
3-Timing is right w/#China

W/#China, former top @CIA counterintelligence official Mark Kelton told @VOANews, #Russia & #Beijing seem to have an understanding "premised on mutual opposition to a common American enemy"

#Putin also seems to feel he can rely on China to soften the economic blowback

All this is not to say that some long-time observers haven't been taken aback by some of #Putin's behavior

"I was surprised by the meandering but angry speech" @john_sipher told @VOANews "It really sounded like he believes this nonsense"

Others also noticed a change in #Putin: "What was different this time was the ominous tone & barely concealed anger" per @SevaUT

"Putin appears to be increasingly isolated from everyone except his inner circle" he told @VOANews

Others though see the #Putin of old

"The Putin I saw was exactly the Putin I expected to see" @MollyMcKew told @VOANews "He wants power & legacy for himself and for his vision of Russia"

And some warn there is a chance #Putin is putting on an act

"If people in the West start thinking that Putin has gone somewhat crazy, that can be a strategic advantage" former senior @CIA official Paul Pillar told @VOANews

Full story here:
voanews.com/a/putin-s-gamb…