Thread by @jseldin

UPDATE Day 5 #Russia invasion of #Ukraine - US assesses Russia still has not established air superiority over all of Ukraine, Ukrainian air defense still intact, per senior US defense official

MORE: #Russia advance on #Kyiv "remains slowed...the main advanced may have advanced 5km since yesterday" per senior US defense official

US believes taking Kyiv is still Moscow's "main line of effort"

Russian forces also have not yet been able to take #Kharkhiv or #Mariupol

MORE: US has seen #Russia +380 missile launches since start of conflict

US intel estimates #Russia has now committed nearly 75% of pre-staged combat power into #Ukraine, per senior US defense official

MORE: Despite #Putin orders for #Russia nuclear forces to be on high alert, US not seeing any "appreciable or noticeable" changes in Russian posture, per senior US defense official

US NOT seeing indication #Belarus troops are moving or preparing to move into #Ukraine, per senior US defense official

"We see no indications that are preparing to get involved" per official "Our best indications are the forces inside #Ukraine are all Russian"

NEW: US aid to #Ukraine ongoing, "with both their ground defensive capabilities as well as airborne defensive capabilities" per senior US defense official

#Russia|n supply lines strained-"Fuel & sustainment are unique challenges to them right now" per sr US defense official

"On day 4 they're running out of gas & having logistics problems...what led to that we can't say w/certainty" per official, but #Ukraine resistance a factor

NEW: US seeing indications that #Russia forces want to surround #Kyiv - similar to approach Russian forces are taking w/#Kharkhiv, per senior US defense official

But too early to say if Russia will lay siege to Kyiv

#Russia|n forces still traveling mostly "along established lines of maneuver, so roads, highways" per senior US defense official

"The #Ukrainians have proven very creative w/how they're resisting..." sometimes w/small arms, small numbers but "effective" per official

US, Western aid to #Ukraine "continues to arrive, continues to get to them, including in the last day or so" per senior US defense official

"We haven't seen that yet" senior US defense official says of possibility #Russia might prepare long-range strikes vs #Kyiv

"We're certainly mindful that the frustrations could lead to a more aggressive approach by the #Russia|ns"

"We still believe that #Kyiv is an objective for them [#Russia]" per senior US defense official

"We have every indication that they are trying to take #Kyiv...encircle Kyiv from multiple locations" per official

#Russia forces-"They're going to learn, they're going to adapt, they're going to try to overcome" warns senior US defense official

Possible this could prompt "less discriminant" tactics by Russia going forward in #Ukraine

"#Russia has never been the victim here, not once... no substantiated reason for Mr Putin to attack #Ukraine but even no substantiated reason" to raise #nuclear threat level/concerns, per senior US defense official

"Right now, countries are doing what they can, when they can" to get aid to #Ukraine, per senior US defense official

"We will continue to work w/allies & partners"

#Ukraine putting up "stiff and determined resistance" in #Kharkhiv, #Kyiv, per senior US defense official

Ukraine's air defenses also "viable and effective and engaged" & @ZelenskyyUa still has command & control, per the official

No contact/communication between US & #Russa|n officials "to speak of" over past 24 hours, per senior US defense official

US forces in #Poland still at least 10km from border w/#Ukraine but prepared to support Polish forces, discussions ongoing abt what that will look like if needed, per senior US defense official

US assessment "We believe that they [#Russia] want to encircle #Kyiv...possible they will adopt siege tactics"
per senior US defense official

#Russia|n forces "throwing a lot" at #Ukraine, "a lot of combat power"

Of the capabilities arrayed around Ukraine before the invasion, "They are employing nearly all of those things"
per senior US defense official

NEW: US has seen "some indications" #Wagner paramilitary group being employed on the ground in #Ukraine, senior US defense official confirms

US confirms #Russia|n attacks hitting non-military targets

"We obviously see that residential areas & civilian targets are being struck...they are causing civilian harm" per sr US defense official

"Whether its intentional or directed, we're just not in position to confirm that"

"What we're seeing now is that the #Ukrainians are still putting up a very stiff & very effective defense" around #Kyiv, per senior US defense official

"We are seeing the #Ukrainians come to the defense of their capital city" per senior US defense official