Thread by @jseldin

NEW: "There hasn't really been a lot of significant change on the ground since yesterday" per senior US defense official

That with just over 80% of #Russia's staged combat capability inside #Ukraine

NEW: #Russia advanced on #Kyiv "stalled outside the city center" per senior US defense official "No appreciable movement closer to the city"

#Russia "much more aggressive in ints targeting in #Kyiv...to include infrastructure" per senior US defense official

#Russia|n forces "appeared to be stalled" outside #Chernihiv #Kharkiv in the north, too, per senior US defense official

In the south, #Kherson "still a contested city" official says

#Mariupol - looks like #Russia forces approaching from various directions, possibly in attempt today to encircle the city, per senior US defense official

"The airspace over #Ukraine remains contested" per senior US defense official "The #Russia|ns have not achieved air superiority over the whole country"

Ukraine air defenses still viable, per the official

US assesses #Russia has now launched +450 missile launches of all sorts, per senior US defense official

Also seeing some degradation of #Ukraine's internet

US cannot confirm #Russia use of cluster munitions in #Ukraine, per senior US defense official

#Russia forces still plagued by logistical & sustainment issues w/fuel & food - "They are certainly aware they have these problems" per senior US defense official

#Russia convoy headed to #Kyiv - "We assess the convoy is stalled" per senior US defense official

Says part is logistical issues, part is continued stiff resistance from #Ukraine forces - some of which have targeted the Russian convoy

"You would expect that the Russians will learn from these missteps...our belief is that is still the case" per senior US defense official

#Russia - #Ukraine

"There's no operations afoot either from the sea or the ground on #Odessa" per senior US defense official...but warns that could change

#Russia using the coastline along the #SeaofAzov to move north on #Mariupol, per senior US defense official

"Mariupol is a major ppltn center that we know they want" official says, adding no indication #Russia trying to hold the coastline

Airspace "still very contested...the degree to which one side or another has dominance literally changes throughout the day" per senior US defense official

NEW: Status of #Russia nuclear forces -"We've seen nothing that would give us less comfort in our own strategic deterrence posture" per senior US defense official

#Putin "historically he has been a very active leader at the top of the military chain of command...a very hands-on approach" per senior US defense official

But as far as Putin's level of involvement in current #Ukraine campaign - "I just don't know"

Pentagon "not making an assessment as to the degree of Mr. Putin's personal isolation" per senior US defense official

re Putin's involvement in #Russia tactical decisions in #Ukraine

"Not at all surprising to us that you're seeing a lot of conscripts...in this flow of forces" per senior US defense official

But says the "vast majority" of combat power #Russia intended to use is currently in #Ukraine

NEW: US not seeing signs of reinforcements coming from #Russia, per senior US defense official

But official cautions there are NO signs Russia "is spent" when it comes to combat power

"They [#Russia] don't appear to be integrated, their combined arms capabilities to the extent you would think they would do," per senior US defense official

"The integration of these elements appears to be lacking"

#Belarus - "No indications or evidence they are moving or positioning" per senior US defense official

They "are not in the fight now"

Belarus-#Russia-#Ukraine

#Russia targeting #Ukraine media - "They said they were going to do it and they did it" per senior US defense official

"Those are civilian targets" official adds

US warns #Russia likely to increase use of artillery as its forces get closer to population centers, per senior US defense official

#Russia in #Ukraine - "Clearly, they are hitting civilian targets. Clearly, they continue to cause civilian harm" per senior US defense official

"At least in the media space, they're doing it deliberately"

#Russia advance on #Kyiv - "It has slowed bcs of resistance from the #Ukrainian that has been effective & quite creative" per senior US defense official

"We also believe they [Russia] have had morale problems that has led t less than effective operation success north of Kyiv"

"We have to be clear eyed ... they will learn and they will adapt" senior US defense official says of #Russia|n forces stalled out for now as they move on #Kyiv

"No indications of the actual call-up of reserves or national guard" by #Russia, per senior US defense official

#Russia "They're going to try to alleviate the food & fuel shortages that they've experienced" per senior US defense official "They'll continue to adapt"

"Clearly the #Russia|ns are not making the progress that we believe they anticipated making...but I want to remind they have an awful lot of combat power at their disposal" per senior US defense official

#Russia's #Putin can still back off, per senior US defense official

"He still has that ability should he be willing to engage in a meaningful discussion" on a ceasefire

"We have to assume they want to go into #Kyiv and topple the gvt" per senior US defense official "Encircling the city is a part of that..."

NEW: US aid to #Ukraine has arrived "even in the last 24 hours" per senior US defense official

Casualties in #Ukraine? "We have no confidence in the various ranges and numbers that are coming from all sorts of different sources" per senior US defense official

"We don't want to contribute to the confusion by putting out numbers we really can't be sure of"

Convoy was "clearly was an effort to continue their advance on #Kyiv" per senior US defense official

Says it likely has both combat power & logistics support

Another reason why #Russia convoy to #Kyiv stalled - "lack of progress by all of the elements ahead of it...the advance elements" per senior US defense official

#Russia|n strikes - "The worry is that as they become more aggressive they will become less discriminate & less precise" per senior US defense official

Russian reports on #Russian casualties in #Ukraine - "I would be extremely skeptical of any information the #Russia|n Ministry of Defense puts out there" per senior US defense official

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1499066887967289352?s=20&t=PyuU18xiIadmJx0mhkKaCA

"The [#Ukraine] resistance is particularly strong' in #Chernihiv #Kharkiv, per senior US defense official

NEW: Adds #Russia|n forces moving on both Ukrainian cities also facing sustainment issues

NEW: US aid to #Ukraine -"We are getting it into the hands of the [Ukraine] armed forces" per senior US defense official

Includes shipments over the past 24 hours

#Ukraine President @ZelenskyyUa "still has command & control of his forces" per senior US defense official

"They have marshaled their assets quite well" per official "The will to fight is very strong, in terms of their armed forces but also in terms of their civilian ppltn"