Jeff Seldin Profile picture
May 2 25 tweets 15 min read
Day 68 - #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine️

+2,125 missile launches since start of the invasion

"We continue to see minimal at best progress by the Russians in the #Donbas" per a senior US defense official
NEW: #Russia|ns not holding gains in #Donbas - "They'll move in, declare victory and then pull out, allowing the #Ukrainians to take it back" per a senior US defense official

Says Russian forces appear risk, casualty averse and "anemic"
NEW: #Russia losing ground around #Kharkiv, per a senior US official

#Ukraine troops have pushed #Russian forces 40km to the east of Kharkiv, making it difficult for Moscow to push down from the north
#Mariupol still being pounded by #Russia|n "dumb bombs' per a senior US defense official
#Russia making "small efforts...with small ships" in the #SeaofAzov, per a senior US defense official
NEW: Status of top #Russia|n Gen Valery Gerasimov - "We can't confirm reports that he was injured" per a senior US defense official

"For several days last week he was in the #Donbas. We don't believe that he's still there" per official, saying Gerasimov likely doing oversight
NEW: US security assistance to #Ukraine...

Per a senior US defense official - 14 flights in past 24 hours, with 11 scheduled in next 24 hours

Another 23 deliveries from 5 other counties, official adds
Training - 170 #Ukrainian troops now trained on #M777 #Howitzers, with another +50 set to graduate training Monday, per a senior US defense official

20 #Ukraine troops to start training on #Phoenix #Ghost UAS...
US assesses currently 93 #Russia|n Battalion tactical Groups in #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

"Not all of those BTGs...are at the same level of combat readiness they were before" invading Ukraine

#Britain has assessed 25% of BTGs "combat ineffective"
#Russia still has about 75% of their combat power available to them, per a senior US defense official
NEW: US diplomats making day trips to #Kyiv - but not under protection of US military, per a senior US defense official

No decisions yet on future security arrangements for @USEmbassyKyiv, per the official
#Russia|n air defense systems mostly being kept inside Russia, per a senior US defense official

Russian air force still NOT able to establish air superiority, per the official

Skies "still pretty contested" w/Russians "risk averse"
NEW: "We know there have been senior leaders, #Russia|n generals who have been killed" per a senior US defense official

BUT US unable to confirm how many....
US comfortable that its military readiness has not been impacted by drawdowns of #Stingers, #Javelins to #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

But official says US not taking anything for granted
"We're going to continue to talk to them" a senior US defense official says of conversations w/US defense contractors and possible supply chain concerns
#Neptune anti ship missiles "are a #Ukrainian product" per a senior US defense official "They can still produce those"
#PhoenixGhost UAS in development prior to #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine

Less than 1/5 of the 121 promised drones have been delivered - "It can be used for anti-armor" per a senior US defense official
"We haven't made any final decisions abt embassy [@USEmbassyKyiv] manning" per a senior US defense official
#Russia "are in fact conducting offensive operations" in #Donbas, per a senior US defense official "Incremental, uneven progress"

"They are not making the progress they were scheduled to make" official adds, again describing #Russian efforts as "anemic"
#Russia's airpower: "They are still very capable of launching strikes & a lot of them they're launching from their own territory" per a senior US defense official

Most airstrikes focused on #Donbas, #Mariupol
US set to deliver #Mi17 helicopters to #Ukraine "very shortly" per a senior US defense official
"We continue to see minimal, at best, progress by the #Russia|ns in the #Donbas" per a senior US defense official

"They've had some minor gains east of #Izyum & #Popasna...They'll move in &then declare victory &then withdraw their troops only to let the #Ukrainians take it back"
#Russia "still suffering from from poor command & control, low morale in many units, less than ideal logistics" per a sr US defense official
"There's a casualty aversion, a risk & casualty aversion that we continue to see by the #Russia|ns now, not just in the air but on the ground" per a senior US defense official
#Russia|n advances in the #Donbas "very cautious, very tepid, very uneven" per a senior US defense official

"In some places, quite frankly, the best word to describe it would be anemic"

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More from @jseldin

May 3
Happening now: @SecDef Lloyd Austin testifies before the Senate Appropriations Committee Image
.@SecDef joined by @thejointstaff Chairman Gen Mark Milley Image
"We are now facing 2 global powers, #China & #Russia" warns @thejointstaff's Gen Milley

"We are entering a world that is becoming more unstable & the potential for significant int'l conflict btw great powers is increasing..."
Read 25 tweets
Apr 29
BREAKING: @PentagonPresSec lambast #Russia's #Putin for conduct of #Russian forces in #Ukraine

"It's hard to look at what he's doing in Ukraine, what his forces are doing in Ukraine & think that any ethical, moral individual could justify that..."
"It's difficult to look at the [pause] Sorry, it's difficult to look at any of the images & think that any well-thinking serious, mature leader would do that" per @PentagonPresSec on #Putin's war on #Ukraine

"I think we can all speak to his depravity"
"It's hard to square his [#Putin's] let's just call it what it is, his BS, that this is about Nazism & #Ukraine & its abt protecting #Russia|ns in Ukraine...when none of them, none of them were threatened by Ukraine" per @PentagonPresSec
Read 9 tweets
Apr 29
Happening now: Briefing at the Pentagon with @PentagonPresSec John Kirby Image
BREAKING: US announces it has started training on #Ukraine troops on artillery, radar systems and armored systems in #Germany, per @PentagonPresSec

Training being done by members of the @FLGuard who had been in Ukraine before the invasion
MORE: @PentagonPresSec says training for #Ukraine troops also underway or soon to be underway in other countries

"We're grateful to be able to restart some of this training on these key systems going forward," he says
Read 5 tweets
Apr 29
Day 64 - #Russia invasion of #Ukraine

Now +1,950 missile strikes since start of conflict - preponderance of strikes now concentrated vs #Mariupol, #Donbas w/"dumb" bombs, per a senior US defense official
NEW: Indications #Russia trying to target #Ukraine's ability to maintain/resupply Ukrainian forces across the country

"We're seeing at least attempted attacks on electrical power facilities" per a senior US defense official
US assesses missile strikes that hit residential areas near #Kyiv may have been intended for #Ukraine military production facilities

"We're not 100% certain they meant to hit residential areas" in #Kyiv, per a senior US defense official
Read 25 tweets
Apr 28
Happening now: News conference by @SecDef Lloyd Austin & #Canada DefMin Anita Anand
"We know we can count on the enduring partnership" w/#Canada, per @SecDef
US, #Canada spoke not just about #Ukraine but also about "a free & open #IndoPacific" per @SecDef
Read 10 tweets
Apr 28
NEW: US @DeptofDefense confirms an estimated $7.12 billion worth of military equipment provided to the Afghan security forces prior to their collapse "remains in Afghanistan in varying states of repair"

Total of $18.6 billion had been provided to Afghan forces from 2005-2021
"It is important to remember that the $7.12 billion figure cited in the Department’s recent report to Congress corresponds to ANDSF equipment & not US military equipment used by our forces" per @DeptofDefense spox Army Major Rob Lodewick in statement
"Nearly all equipment used by US military forces in #Afghanistan was either retrograded or destroyed prior to our withdrawal" per @DeptofDefense's Maj. Lodewick in statement
Read 10 tweets

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