Thread by @I_Katchanovski

Article in the Maple includes my interview on how #UkraineRussiaWar could have been prevented. @readthemaple

#Ukraine️ #Russia #ukrainewar #RussianUkrainianWar #RussiaUkraineConflict #UkraineRussiaConflict
readthemaple.com/yes-the-ukrain…

@readthemaple "“[The war] could have been avoided and prevented,” Katchanovski explained. Specifically, an agreement in which Ukraine promised to remain a neutral country and the fulfilment of the Minsk accords could have stopped Putin’s invasion, he said." 2/

"Katchanovski suggested that before Putin’s invasion, a successful peace agreement could have allowed for Ukraine to eventually join the European Union (EU) in exchange for neutrality." 3/

"However, seeking a peace deal with Russia, “was not a policy of the United States, which has a very strong influence on Ukrainian politics and on [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy in particular,” Katchanovski explained. He said Ukraine is a “U.S. client state.”" 4/

“U.S. and Ukrainian policy are very closely aligned on almost all the major issues, and the U.S. has very strong influence on appointments of top government officials after the Western-supported violent overthrow of the government in 2014." 5/

"This means the U.S. also has the power to push for the proper implementation of a peace agreement, Katchanovski said. In the period leading up to Putin's invasion, there was little immediate prospect of Ukraine formally joining NATO, said Katchanovski." 6/

"However, he added, Western states continued to express support for such a move and indicated that it might happen in the future, a prospect that Putin exaggerated for political reasons. “There was no justification for [Putin’s] invasion for this reason," 7/

"but at the same time, this does not mean that NATO expansion or using Ukraine as a military pull against Russia was a total non-issue,” said Katchanovski. Attempts to dismiss Putin as “irrational,” said Katchanovski, are typical of wartime propaganda." 8/

"He noted that similar rhetoric was used to describe former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in the run-up to the U.S.-led invasion of that country. “This is nothing new,” said Katchanovski. However, he noted," 9/

"viewing Putin as a rational actor does not mean the Russian president's actions are justifiable or that he didn’t make a grave miscalculation about his prospects for a speedy victory in Ukraine." Ending the invasion, said Katchanovski, is currently a distant prospect." 10/

"Katchanovski said there was a “real possibility” that a deal could have been reached, but that it would not be accepted by Western countries, who are using Ukraine as a proxy war against Russia.“ 11/

“This now means that such a real possibility of a peaceful deal has now become much more distant,” he noted. “The interests of the West are not to have any peace deal unless Russia basically capitulates, which is not very likely.” 12/