Thread by @jseldin

Day 92 of #Russia's war in #Ukraine

Now 110 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups operating in #Ukraine, most in the south of #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

"We assess that #Russia has made some incremental gains...still is fighting for control of the town of #Lyman"

"We blv that #Russia|n forces have been able to seize most of northeastern #Sievierodonetsk" per a senior US defense official

"No major changes" around #Kharkiv, per a senior US defense official

#Russia|n forces still within about 10km of the Russian border

#Russia forces "trying to pinch off" #Ukrainian forces from #Propasna to #Sievierodonetsk, per a senior US defense official

Describes it as a much smaller version of what #Russia tried to do initially by carving out, eastern #Ukraine, the #Donbas

Of the 108 M777 #Howitzers from US, 85 are forward deployed by #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

Also:
9 of 11 Mi-17 helicopters transferred
73% of switchblade drones transferred

Almost 20 #Ukraine troops now being trained outside Ukraine on #Harpoon anti-ship missiles coming from #Denmark, per a senior US defense official

Other training outside Ukraine also ongoing

No US military efforts involved in trying to get get estimated 22 million tons of grain out of #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

US, @NATO weapons getting to #Ukraine & the front lines, per a senior US defense official

"They still have the ability to move weapons into their frontline units" official says, citing what Ukrainian officials are telling the US

#Russia "trying to overcome some of the challenges they've had" in #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

"It's a more localized effort. They're using smaller units to go after smaller objectives...they have the numbers on their side"

But "it's the same doctrinal approach"

#SnakeIsland - "The #Russia|ns are in control of it. They want to stay in control of it" per a senior US defense official

"We do believe that the #Russia|n military has suffered a ... not insignificant amount of attrition" per a senior US defense official

Almost 1,000 Russian tanks now likely inoperable

Also likely lost:
-250 artillery pieces
-3 dozen fighter-bombers
- +50 helicopter

Despite losses, "They [#Russia] still have a significant amount...of their capability left to them" per a senior US defense official

"The #Russia|ns lose soldiers every day" per a senior US defense official

"The fights themselves are happening over smaller pieces of ground with smaller units"

#Russia - #Ukraine fight in the #Donbas - "It is very much an artillery duel...a scrap over smaller pieces of earth" per a senior US defense official

"It could go on for quite a while"

#Russia putting naval, air defense systems on #SnakeIsland in the #BlackSea, per a senior US defense official

"It gives them additional options, it gives them additional flexibility in the northern Black Sea"

220 US Switchblades drones - of the first 300 committed - are in #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

#Russia nuclear posture - "No changes" per a senior US defense official

"Nothing that would indicate an imminent use of tactical nuclear weapons by the #Russians"

#Russia - "They are continuing to replenish their troops...move fresh troops into #Ukraine" per a senior US defense official "Most of the troops they're putting in, they're putting right into the fight"

This effort includes more reservists, official says

"We're not prepared to label this as a stalemate" per a senior US defense official

Calls #Ukraine an "active, kinetic fight"