Thread by @les_politiques

"Europe’s concerns have changed since #Russia invaded #Ukraine and the West responded with sanctions. In just a few weeks, energy security has eclipsed the climate crisis."
mondediplo.com/2022/06/02ener…

"Three months into the invasion, the energy war being fought far from Ukraine already has its winners and losers. The #EU, and #Germany in particular, clearly fall into the loser category." #Ukraine #Russia

"The #EU has made 2 mistakes...The 1st is haste to reduce its dependence on Russian gas...without securing a reliable & affordable alternative... (relying) in the short term on LNG...imported from US, Australia & Qatar in tankers (each holds abt enough to supply France for 1day)"

"#US doesn’t have export capacity to replace Russian gas, Qatar’s books are filled w orders from Asia until 2026, Egypt ships most of its output to China & Turkey. Libya’s instability, and Algeria & Morocco dispute... (mean) gas price in Europe on Apr27 was 6x than a yr earlier"

"There’s stiff competition among buyers as a third of international transactions are based not on long-term contracts but on spot prices:shipments go to the highest bidder." #Russia #energycrisis

"The #EU’s second mistake is #Germany and the European Commission’s alignment with the #US. It’s easy enough for Washington to ban imports of Russian hydrocarbons (8 March) because it won’t be affected directly."

"#vonderLeyen's 4 May announcement that the #EU would ‘phase out supply of Russian crude oil within six months and refined products by the end of the year’ effectively imposed sanctions on the people of Europe, especially the least well-off."

"measures introduced to prevent a Europe-wide Gilet Jaunes-style crisis can’t fully or sustainably cover the rise in fuel prices, and though the #EU is wise to diversify supply, boycotting #Russia is not in its interest."

"#Germany symbolises the EU’s inconsistency. Its energy security has until now been based on cheap gas, long-term contracts and sustainable infrastructure (the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines)."

"On 7 Feb this year, #Biden revealed at a joint press conference with Chancellor Scholz that #Germany’s energy policy is now decided in Washington: ‘If #Russia invades...then there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.’"

"Any head of state concerned to protect their country’s strategic interests would be horrified at the idea of sacrificing...energy security in a matter of weeks. The LNG shipments the US has promised will barely make up 10% of #Germany’s imports from #Russia"

"Despite his U-turn, Scholz was pilloried. ‘Refusing to shut off the flow of Russian gas makes #Germany de facto complicit in mass murder,’ pro-Democrat economist Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times (7 April 2022)."

"‘We must stop buying Russian gas,’ Le Monde said (8 April 2022), even if that means ‘production stoppages, short-time working and job losses, as well as higher cost for both manufacturers and consumers.’" #Russia #energycrisis #EU

"Restructuring the European gas market around LNG also presents economic, security & environmental problems. Unlike oil, the price of LNG varies by market: in Q1 of 2022 the spot price of one MBtu...was $7 in the US, $32.3 in Europe (a peak of $72 in March) and $30.7 in Asia"

"Europe is signing new contracts at a time when prices are at record highs: in summer 2020 the spot price was less than $2/MBtu." #energycrisis #EU #Russia

"Unreliable supply is another problem:unlike long-term contracts w #Russia...trade w private American producers is subject to market volatility...LNG tanker British Listener sailed from Texas...bound for Asia...but turned around on Apr1 headed for Europe, where prices are higher"

"The greatest hypocrisy in Europe decoupling from Russian gas relates to the environment. The carbon footprint of American LNG shipped to France is twice that of conventional Russian gas" #US #LNG #Russia #EU #energycrisis

"The #US is sitting pretty: while major rivals such as #China and #India are importing ever more fossil fuels, it has become energy self-sufficient...and the #Ukraine war has given its private-sector shale gas & oil producers a further advantage over their weakened Russian rival"

"But there are clouds on the horizon: after two years of production stoppages, logistical chaos, and component and raw material shortages, all linked to Covid-19 lockdowns, the sharp rise in energy prices is threatening both shareholder dividends and social order (in the #US).

"A group of US senators have written to energy secretary Jennifer Granholm, urging her to take ‘swift action to limit #US natural gas exports’ and ‘consider the potential increase in cost to American families because of higher export volumes’"

One would think that the #US being self sufficient in energy would not translate in increase in gas prices at the pump for US citizens, but the US is exporting this energy, and its corporatocracy is profiting from the war & #Russia sanctions resulting in increase in energy prices

"#Russia looks like the other loser in the energy war. Being denied access to the Western market, which took more than half its oil and three quarters of its gas exports in 2021, will have a lasting impact on revenues."

"Redirecting #Russia’s energy exports to Asia is not a new idea. It was first proposed in 2003...Russia’s gas sector is also trying to become less dependent on Europe & in 2019 opened the Siberian Force pipeline... There are plans for a Siberian Force 2 which will cross Mongolia"

"To escape geographic constraints and compete with the #US, Qatar and Australia, #Russia is strengthening its position in the LNG market by building infrastructure, notably off Sakhalin (in partnership with Japanese companies despite the sanctions) and on the Gydan peninsula"

"The pivot to the East is not w/o problems...#Russia is dealing with Asian clients who are negotiating from a position of strength. In April, Chinese independent refiners secured a discount that allows them to buy Russian oil at $35 a barrel less than Brent crude, then over $100"

"In the long term, the energy security imperative dictates policy: because it imports 75% of its oil and 40% of its gas, #China is highly dependent on shipping routes controlled by the #US...Moscow’s proposed northern and eastern routes are an attractive solution"

"another country taking advantage of the war to buy cheap energy from #Russia is #India. Despite pressure from #US, shipments of Russian oil have soared...India is thought to have enough refining capacity to turn Russian crude into diesel and sell it on to Europe with a...margin"

"As the Russian invasion enters its fourth month...Europe is restructuring its hydrocarbon supply...at the cost of socially damaging rates...#China and #India...are slaking their thirst for fuel with discounted Russian hydrocarbons that Europe won’t buy." #EU #Russia

"A vicious circle has ensued: sanctions against #Russia have increased international demand for immediately available and flexible energy...but at the same time govs are reluctant to fund major extraction projects because of their climate commitments"

Bloomberg summed it up: ‘Big Oil is raking in historic amounts of cash, but the windfall isn’t being invested in new production to help displace Russian oil & gas. Instead, executives are rewarding shareholders — setting the world up for an even tighter energy market...ahead’

https://twitter.com/Cristi_t_85/status/1531439403796676608?s=20&t=oTdru9gX2sHcosv1zdHrxw

"#Japan will not exit Sakhalin-2 project even if asked to do so, says minister"

https://twitter.com/les_politiques/status/1531347684761735169?s=20&t=HK1mdJi2XBUMb0xf3lm4_w

#energycrisis #Russia #EU #Pipeline