Thread by @Mariia_Zolkina

🧵#100daysofwar. They said, #Ukraine would fall in max.3 days, but we surprised the whole world. Maneuvering defense, sophisticated tactics, top-level military skills. Huge motivation and spirit in the army and society. In this 🧵 some major conclusions so far 1/

Military summing up:
1A)#Russia failed in majority of attacks: #Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Odesa, Mykolayiv.
1B) RU “success” in major part of #Luhansk region isn’t due to RU offensive, but rather bcs of tactical step back of #UAarmy. 2/

1C) Where UA army seriously fought in Luhansk obl (#Sievierodonetsk, Popasna, Rubizhne), Russians can’t take the towns for 3 months already!
Their only tactics is to destroy city to zero (Popasna, #Rubizhne), to occupy this empty land 3/ #ArmUkraineNow

1D) #Ukraine️ has done all this without sufficient number of weapons, without offensive weapons and proved to be capable of defeating RU militarily once we have enough heavy artillery, drones, #MLRS and possibly more fighter jets. #ArmUkraineNow 4/

1E) #UAarmy is getting know how to use highly sophisticated arms in short terms. #Ukraine benefits from share of intelligence data from our Western partners. Thus, we eliminated RU warships, namely Moskva, and more than dozen of RU generals. #ArmUkraineNow 5/

1F) Occupation is temporary. Massive counteroffensive is being planned, and will be enabled by needed amount of weapons supply. Now UA is conducting tactical counteroffensive operations in #Kherson obl., #Zaporizhzhya and on border btw #Kharkiv and Donetsk obl. #ArmUkraineNow 6/

1G) RU army proved to be prevailing only in numbers of people and weapons. No smart tactics. Air-attacks, art shelling and devastation of cities to rubble. No motivation. Even people from so called “L/DPR” are escaping from battlefield #ArmUkraineNow 7/

1H) Though still lacking enough weapons, #Ukraine️ is strategically winning. While UA is receiving new arms, and will continue to do so, Russia is slowly, but exhausting its military resources. RU artillery and #MLRS are loosing in front of new ones from #NATO. #ArmUkraineNow 8/

Political summing up:
2A) #Ukraine has mobilized EU, NATO, G7. New “Ramstein format” for defense support of UA was established. Despite of some issues, this unity is unprecedented. Our task is to keep this anti-RU coalition in force. There are problems, but nevertheless 9/

2B) #Russia doesn’t have allies. Even members of RU-led Common Security Treaty Org-n haven’t supported RU invasion and try to distance from it (except for #Belarus). #China doesn’t react to Putin appeal for support, want to avoid sanctions. #ArmUkraineNow 10/

2C) West maneuvers, but states in its documents (like G7) that goal is to restore UA control over its entire territory. Nothing is 100% predictable in war, but goal of UA is broader than it was before 24.02.22. #ArmUkraineNow #100daysofwar 11/

2D) RU aim is to crack down Western unity, establish direct dialog with West without UA, occupy as much UA land up to mass weapons delivery in the mid-summer. UA position is no territorial concessions, more weapons to end war quicker, and no negotiations without RU withdrawal 12/

3)Summing up: #Ukraine won’t concede, new sanctions will be harder to launch, but they will be. Strategically, #Russia is loosing. No business as usual with it. New weapons, pre-planned counteroffensive, and new sanctions are what to expect and work for in coming months. 12/End