Thread by @jseldin

US view of developments in #Ukraine: "At the broadest levels, there's no doubt that thus far #Russia has failed to achieve it strategic objectives" @DOD_Policy Colin Kahl tells #CNAS2022

"Vladimir Putin went into this war seeking to gobble Ukraine up..."

#Russia "has had more progress in the south" of #Ukraine, per @DOD_Policy

Russian gains-"To some degree that is true although the gains on any given day really measured in blocks" he says "They are not large, sweeping breakthroughs of Ukrainian defenses"

"There are significant casualties, but that is true on both sides" per @DOD_Policy at #CNAS2022 on #Russia-#Ukraine fighting

"The Ukrainians are taking casualties, The Russians are taking a lot of casualties, as well, & the front lines are not moving very much"

#Ukraine forces are currently undergoing training "as we speak" on #HIMARS, #MLRS coming from the US, per @DOD_Policy

Vladimir Putin - "Our sense is that he has not changed his overall objectives" in #Ukraine, per @DOD_Policy

"He has been forced to recognize that they have to narrow their operational objectives to focusing on the east..."

#Putin in last few weeks, "There's a little bit of him saying the quiet out loud as it relate to his imperial ambitions" per @DOD_Policy "I still think he has designs on a significant portion of #Ukraine if not the whole country"

"I do not think he can achieve those objectives"

"The sense of the #Ukrainian anxiety abt the artillery duel [in eastern #Ukraine] is palpable" per @DOD_Policy

"It is true that the #Russia|ns have significantly more artillery capability" Kahl adds, saying that's bcs Ukraine was dependent on #Soviet era artillery systems

"It's become more difficult" to resupply #Ukraine with the artillery needed for those #Soviet era systems" per @DOD_Policy "So we made the transition to @NATP standard artillery systems..."

"It is true that the #Ukrainians have a need to be able to have more standoff from the #Russia|ns & thats where the #MLRS systems come in" per @DOD_Policy

On #HIMAR systems, "the #Ukrainians are completing training as we speak" per @DOD_Policy "We expect those systems to et into the fight soon"

Inside #Russia, "there are indications of more grumbling & finger-pointing" per @DOD_Policy at #CNAS2022

"I'm sure nobody relishes having to go in & brief #Putin on how things are going"

"At the same time, Vladimir #Putin controls the information ecosystem in #Russia...Russian nationalism is real & there has been a rally around the flag effect" per @DOD_Policy

"Putin, looking at his internal poll numbers, probably feels relatively confident in where he stands"

"Our goal is not regime change in #Russia" per @DOD_Policy

"Our goal... is to make sure #Ukraine can defend itself" he says "That we give Ukraine the ability to strengthen their position at the bargaining table when inevitably the 2 sides sit down to talk abt how this all ends"

US also aiming ti impose a cost on #Russia "to send a message to #Putin that he shouldn't do this again & to send a message to other would-be aggressors that there would be a real cost if they try to this"

How does #Russia-#Ukraine end? "We don't know" per @DOD_Policy

US National Defense Strategy - unclassified version could be released "in the coming weeks or months" per @DOD_Policy

Will be at same time as the release of the National Security Strategy, per Kahl

#Russia or #China bigger threat to the US?

"China is really the only country w/both the intent & the capability to systemically challenge the #UnitedStates" per @DOD_Policy at #CNAS2022 "That is true not just for the moment but for the foreseeable future"

New US national defense strategy "identifies #Russia essentially as an acute threat" per @DOD_Policy

"Acute suggests both temporally, it's very immediate & sharp" per Kahl

#China & #Russia-#Ukraine

"If I'm sitting in #Beijing, I think the fundamental question to draw is, if they were to commit an act of aggression sometime in the future, will the world react he way it did when China snuffed out democracy in #HongKong..." per @DOD_Policy

"... or will the world react more like they did in the case of #Ukraine?" per @DOD_Policy

"It's imperative for the leadership in #Beijing to understand that where the world is now, the Ukraine scenario is a much more likely outcome"

#China looking at #Russia-#Ukraine - "I suspect they are surprised at the quality of US & Western intelligence relative to their own intelligence capabilities" per @DOD_Policy

"They did not predict that Russia was going to do this...that was an intelligence failure for the PRC"

"I suspect they [#China] are surprised by the degree to which the US & other democracies were effective in the information domain" per @DOD_Policy

"[Chinese leadership] is very focused on winning the propaganda contest & shaping the information environment"

"I suspect [#China] they're taking note of the #Russia|ns on paper look like th 2nd best military in the world ... & yet the logistical difficulties, the difficulties w/morale" per @DOD_Policy "and the tenacity of the #Ukrainians to leverage asymmetric capabilities"

#China "in the midst of a breathtaking expansion of its #nuclear arsenal" per @DOD_Policy "Probably tripling or quadrupling its arsenal over the next decade"