Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Jul 15 19 tweets 12 min read
NEW - Day 142 of #Russia invasion of #Ukraine

"Russian forces are limited to incremental if any gains" in the #Donbas "held off" by #Ukraine forces, per a senior US military official

Says Russians have not been able to advance on #Slovansk
US confirms #Russia used submarine launched missiles in deadly attack on #Vinnytsia, per a senior US military official

Says "no indication" there was a legitimate military target anywhere nearby
US provided #HIMARS - "They're having a very, very significant effect" for #Ukraine, per a senior US military official

"We've all seen the #Russia|ns slow their movement & advances"
#Russia|n strikes over past 7-14 days have caused 100-150 civilian casualties, per a senior US military official
#Ukraine #HIMARS hitting #Russia|n ammo depots but "Russia is a well-stocked country" per a senior US military official
US not tracking weapons sent to #Ukraine

But US emphasizes officials "have not seen indications those weapons have gone anywhere else" per a senior US military official
#Ukraine forces "have made some small gains in the south" per a senior US military official
NEW: No signs any weapons from #Iran are showing up YET among #Russia|n forces fighting in #Ukraine, per a senior US military official
#HIMARS - "We didn't think that would be a silver bullet" for #Ukraine, per a senior US military official

Says the battle in #Donbas is now "between bad morale and strong will" w/morale of #Russia|n forces "abysmal"
Ability of #Ukraine forces to destroy weapons/ammo supplies far behind #Russian front lines having a significant impact on morale of Russian forces, per a senior US military official
" We assess that #Russia|n forces are limited to incremental, if any gains around the northern #Donbas, held up by #Ukrainian defenses" per senior US military official

"Russian forces continue to employ indiscriminate artillery bombardment along w/air missile strikes"
#Kharkiv - "We assess that the #Ukrainians are continuing to defeat #Russia|n attempts to gain ground in the vicinity of #Izyum" per senior US military official "In #Slovyansk [it's] generally the same"

"Pretty strong defenses from the Ukrainians"
#Mikolayiv, #Kherson - "no real progress there" by either #Ukraine or #Russia, per senior US military official
#HIMARS "having a very very significant effect" per sr US military ofcl

#Ukraine "spending a lot of time striking targets like ammunition supplies, other logistical supplies, command&control...a direct impact on the ability [of #Russia] to conduct operations on the front line"
"We've all seen the #Russia|ns slow their movements & their advances" per senior US military official on #Ukraine's use on #HIMARS

"It's hard for me to believe that can't be somehow related to the loss of ammunition & the loss of somebody to tell them where to go"
#Ukraine's efforts in the south

"I do know that the Ukrainians have made small gains in pockets in the south" per a sr US military official "I hesitate to put a number on that"
#HIMARS - "we didn't think that would be a silver bullet, certainly" per senior US military official
US view of the fight btw #Russia & #Ukraine

"What you've got is a kind of a match up between bad morale & strong will" per sr US military official, adding "The morale of the Russians is really dismal"
"It'd be hard not to have morale issues at times when again, you know you're supposed to get supplies but those supplies were destroyed 40 kilometers behind your lines" per senior US military official

re #Russia's troop morale issues

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More from @jseldin

Jul 14
US, #Netherlands - "Our countries share a thirst for liberty" Dutch @DefensieMin @KajsaOllongren tells #ACFrontPage

#Russia's Vladimir #Putin is "tsar-struck" she says, and fears liberty
"#Ukraine can prevail w/our help... #Russia cannot win this war" per Dutch @DefensieMin @KajsaOllongren
The #Netherlands will be spending 2% of GDP in 2024 as pledged, per Dutch @DefensieMin @KajsaOllongren
Read 14 tweets
Jul 13
"#ISIS is not gone" per @WHNSC's Joshua Geltzer, who says ISIS still sticking w/its basic game plan of taking advantage of ungoverned spaces, instability, carry out attacks and try to establish some territorial control

ISIS claiming 350 attacks this year in #Iraq #Syria
US sees financial movement between #ISIS core & its affiliates, as well as attempts to maintain a coherent over-arching strategy, @WHNSC's Joshua Geltzer tells @MiddleEastInst @ICSR_Centre
"There is a level of collaboration & coordination" per @WHNSC's Joshua Geltzer on #ISIS & its affiliates

Points to call by ISIS core earlier this year for affiliated to ramp up attacks - a call he says was answered
Read 7 tweets
Jul 13
"#ISIS remains a real & potent threat" @DeptofDefense Deputy Asst Sec. for the Middle East Dana Stroul tells @MiddleEastInst @ICSR_Centre

Says ISIS "working to infiltrate population centers" while also working in small cells in rural areas
"The #UnitedStates is committed to maintaining our force presence in #Iraq & #Syria to achieve the enduring defeat of #ISIS" per @DeptofDefense's Stroul
10,000 #ISIS fighters still being held in make-shift prisons across NE #Syria by the #SDF, per @DeptofDefense's Stroul

"No secret" ISIS wants to replicate January's attack on prison in #Hasakah, she adds
Read 18 tweets
Jul 13
"We need to get those children out of the cmaps & the prisons that they're living in" @SavetheChildren #Syria Response Director Sonia Khush tells @MiddleEastInst @ICSR_Centre

"There is a lot of hope for them to live a normal life" if they can get out of the camps, she says
Children stuck in IDP camps, prisons in NE #Syria are not the next wave of #ISIS - they are victims, per @SavetheChildren's Khush
Children in NE #Syria IDP camps - "Repatriations are not an insurmountable problem" per @hrw's @lettatayler "There is a lack of political will"
Read 11 tweets
Jul 13
4,000-5,000 non #Syria|n fighters still being detained in NE #Syria, along w/thousands of family members-"a serious ongoing security & humanitarian threat" @StateDept acting CT Coordinator Timothy Betts tells @MiddleEastInst @ICSR_Centre

Leaving them there "not a viable option"
"#ISIS knows that prisons breaks work-they're time tested and generate long-lasting results" per @StateDept's Betts

ISIS tried at #Hasakah in January, has others in its sights-"We know they will try to attack them again"
"The only durable solution...is for each country to take back its nationals" per @StateDept's Betts

"We cannot fight our way out of this side of the battle" vs #ISIS, he says
Read 20 tweets
Jul 8
NEW: @POTUS praises the heroism of @CIA, especially in regards to Vladimir Putin & #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine

Biden said the CIA “punched a big hole” in the #Kremlin's playbook

CIA workforce gave Biden a standing ovation as he left...

via WH radio pooler @Tara_Mckelvey
Comments came during a speech by @POTUS to @CIA's workforce at CIA HQ -- to commemorate the spy agency's 75th anniversary
"I'm honored to be here standing in front of this hallowed wall to honor 75 years in this proud institution" per @POTUS

"For 75 years, our nation's intelligence professionals have worked unceasingly & have sacrificed willingly make our country safer"
Read 10 tweets

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