Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 19 39 tweets 24 min read
Thread: 19 July 2022: Day 146 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia has struggled for manpower since the outset and the "problem is likely becoming increasingly acute". The Russians are stretched between offensive operations in the Donbas and trying to defend against a #Ukraine counter-offensive in Kherson. Image
#Hungary overtly celebrating keeping #Russia's Gazprombank off the #EU sanctions list
Very helpful details on how #Russia ran the war in eastern #Ukraine since 2014 through agents like Igor Plotnitsky and Igor Girkin (Strelkov)
An excellent speech by #NATO General-Secretary Jens Stoltenberg: supporting #Ukraine is not just about morality; it is in the Alliance states' own interests, and whatever the monetary cost of that would be larger if #Russia prevails.
Deputy Minister of Defense Volodymyr Havrylov is clear that #Ukraine will target #Russia's fleet in the Black Sea whenever possible (the Russians have pulled ships back already because of this) and the ultimate aim is to push the Russians out of Crimea.…
#Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska has been in Washington for high-level meetings with #US officials about the support her country needs.
#Ukraine continues laying the groundwork for a move on #Russian-occupied Kherson
The Islamic State has published a video of its forces taking down a drone in the Menaka region of #Mali. It seems the drone belonged to #Russia's "Wagner" unit.
#Russia unsubtly signalling a threat to #Europe if they don't deliver a "ceasefire" that legitimises the Russian occupation over areas of #Ukraine
Europe being enticed by #China as the CCP's #Russian ally pressures Europe over #Ukraine
Seems we're quibbling over the definition of "desperation": #Russia is clearly using the S-300 as land missiles because it has them to hand. But, especially given how ineffective the S-300s are, implicitly concedes their precision stuff is not to hand.
Should also be added that the Russians using the anti-ship missiles on land is another important data point suggesting that the precision-guided weapons are running low.
#Russia publicly engaging with #Iraq, a state under heavy Iranian influence, on the same day Putin is in Iran.
Unless I'm mistaken, the first citizen from #Sweden killed helping #Ukraine defend herself from #Russia's invasion
#Ukraine requesting advanced air craft from the #US
#Russia has launched missiles against Kramatorsk in the Donetsk Oblast of eastern #Ukraine. An block of flats was hit; reports are of ten people injured.
Highly dubious: was reported yesterday by the "General SVR" Telegram channel that the head of #Russia's Security Council and former FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev had survived an assassination attempt (poisoning).…
The same channel also reports that Putin regards his daughter "Katerina Tikhonova [as] the only person who can act as a guarantor of the stability of the existence of the Putin regime, without being a direct successor." Which is almost certainly not true.
Mostly demented from Andrei Isayev, of course, but he does reiterate that #Russia's war, while geographically in #Ukraine, is against the #US-led global order. His colleague chimes in by saying Russia has resisted the "economic blitzkrieg".
#Latvia displaying a seriousness that is notably lacking when it comes to #Russia further West in Europe
#Iran has hardly hidden its support for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, seeing it in the same framework as Moscow as a war against the #US and the global order it underwrites, but now it comes from the Supreme Leader directly.
A guest on Olga Skabeyeva's show on #Russian state TV says: "It's called trans-fascism. They're taking over the whole world. Europe surrendered a long time ago ... they've reached the North Caucasus." Skabeyeva adds: "We'll have to denazify them, too."
So rarely a good sign when propaganda turns to medical analogies about dealing with enemies.
Once hailed as the leader of the West, the legacy of #Germany's former Chancellor Angela Merkel (r. 2005-21) is being written in the blood of #Ukrainians and the economic devastation of Europe by the powers, #Russia and #China, she courted so assiduously.…
#Ukraine claims, and some of #Russia's semi-official channels seem to confirm, that a Russian jet was brought down over Liubymivka, a Russian-occupied town in the Kherson Oblast.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Jul 21
Thread: 21 July 2022: Day 148 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia is attempting "small scale assaults" along the Donbas frontline in eastern #Ukraine, particularly targeting critical infrastructure like the power plant at Vuhlehirska, hoping to use the momentum gained for a move on Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Image
Great piece on the #China-#Russia-#Iran axis: bound by a "hatred of the #US and its global alliance system", any successful policy dealing with these imperial and ideological projects must view them holistically, rather than as independent challenges.… Image
Read 28 tweets
Jul 20
Thread: 20 July 2022: Day 147 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia is making "minimal gains" in the Donbas offensive, but #Ukraine is "holding the line". Russian-occupied Kherson is continuing to come under pressure from Ukrainian actions, with bridges and other access points being threatened. Image
#Australia has been the largest supporter of #Ukraine outside of #NATO, and the Ukrainians have a great Ambassador Down Under, @AmbVasyl.
Read 25 tweets
Jul 18
Thread: 18 July 2022: Day 145 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia has been using troops flagged as "Wagner" in the recent fighting in Popasna and Lysyschansk to hold down the official casualty figures. To make up manpower, recruitment standards have been lowered, including recruiting criminals from prisons.
#Saudi purchases of #Russia's energy products has increased
Read 54 tweets
Jul 17
"I might not be the slickest presenter". Some self awareness from Liz Truss. #ToryLeadershipDebate
Truss quoting Reagan and running a campaign "about the future". I think she's perfectly fine to do the job, but goodness she is not a great communicator. #ToryLeadershipDebate
Badenoch going hard at Tugendhat for never having to make government decisions as a counter to his "clean break" pitch. Interested to see how that lands. #ToryLeadershipDebate
Read 9 tweets
Jul 17
Thread: 17 July 2022: Day 144 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update:

- #Russia is trying to reinforce defensive lines in the occupied south-east

- #Ukraine applying pressure around occupied Kherson, signs of an impending counter-offensive, which is likely what has provoked the Russian defensive moves.
Read 25 tweets
Jul 16
Thread: 16 July 2022: Day 143 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update:

- #Russia's "offensive operations remain reduced in scope and scale", despite "false claims of success" aimed at a domestic audience.

- #Ukraine has shortened and straightened its defensive lines since Lysychansk fell, and has been able to slow RU down Image
President Zelensky's Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak says the National Defense Authorization Act approved by the #US House of Representatives includes $100m for training programs for #Ukraine's pilots with F-15s and F-16s, which should take about three months. Image
Read 8 tweets

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