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Aug 25 15 tweets 12 min read
East African leaders have agreed to assemble troops to combat armed groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of #Congo #DRC.

What is this joint force and what are its objectives?

@PMvandeWalle takes a close look in our latest Q&A.

[Thread] 🧵👇
crisisgroup.org/africa/great-l…
The East African Community (EAC) @jumuiya is composed of #DRCongo 🇨🇩, #Tanzania 🇹🇿, #Kenya 🇰🇪, #Burundi 🇧🇮, #Rwanda 🇷🇼, #SouthSudan 🇸🇸 & #Uganda 🇺🇬.

The EAC’s joint force was designed to respond to the rampant insecurity in eastern DRC, a serious concern for the entire region.
Cyclic violence, displacement and insecurity due to the presence of armed groups has been plaguing the region for almost 30 years.

Yet an actual deployment of a regional force is unprecedented.
crisisgroup.org/africa/great-l…
The EAC is to assemble between 6,500 and 12,000 soldiers with a mandate to “contain, defeat and eradicate negative forces” in the eastern #DRC.

#Burundi was the first country to intervene in the framework of this initiative, deploying troops 10 days ago.
In spite of #Burundi’s deployment, it is still not clear how (if at all) the #DRC’s other neighbours will send troops into the country.

The plan requires each country to pay for its own soldiers, but some governments may struggle to bear the costs.
Securing additional funding will be complicated.

The @_AfricanUnion cannot afford sustained financing while additional @UN support is unlikely given its costly 16,000-strong peace-keeping mission in #DRC.

It’s also unclear how EAC soldiers will work with this mission #MONUSCO. Image
Complicating matters further, #DRC President @FelixUdps will have to navigate widespread distrust of the new force among Congolese people, many of whom deeply resent what they see as a long history of foreign meddling in the resource-rich east.
theguardian.com/global-develop…
#Rwanda’s presence is particularly controversial.

#DRC's population still harbours painful memories from Rwanda’s backing of the #M23 rebel group whose recent revival is causing havoc in the region.
crisisgroup.org/africa/great-l…
Convinced that #Rwanda is still playing a part in supporting the #M23, #DRC President Tshisekedi has insisted in EAC talks that #Rwanda was excluded from the joint force.

This approach will inevitably bear negative costs - most of which remain to be seen.
Against this backdrop, @PMvandeWalle weighs the benefits & the risks of deploying an EAC force to subdue the #M23 & other insurgencies.

The main benefit is that the multilateral structure will help blunt perceptions that outsiders are meddling for their own interests.
Yet significant risks are to be considered.

Several of #DRC’s neighbours have repeatedly tried to undermine stability in the country’s east by bolstering proxy fighters and tapping its huge natural resources.
Secondly, civilians could once again bear the brunt of the armed violence.

Indeed, armed groups in the #DRC have often become more brutal toward villagers when facing military pressure. Image
To give the EAC's joint force the best odds of success, coordination with the UN’s peacekeeping #MONUSCO force will be crucial.

The joint force’s stated objective is to hunt down rebel groups, while #MONUSCO continues to assure the protection of civilians. Image
The UN Security Council #UNSC should be very cautious about appearing to endorse the mission, at least until it has a track record demonstrating that it is doing more good than harm.
For regular updates on the Great Lakes region follow @PMvandeWalle.

Thread 📷 by @nicodelaunay.

Read our latest piece for a deep dive into the complex nature of this joint force and recommendations on how to best approach its difficult mission👇
crisisgroup.org/africa/great-l…

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More from @CrisisGroup

Aug 24
#TCHAD - Qui sont les absents du Dialogue National Inclusif & Souverain? #DNIS

Suite à l'accord de paix signé le 8 août à #Doha entre le Conseil Militaire de Transition (CMT) et ≈ 40 groupes politico-militaires, le DNIS a débuté avec beaucoup de chaises vides.

Pourquoi ? 🧵👇
Le #DNIS a commencé le 20 août à N'Djamena.

Environ 1400 délégués ont pour mission la reconstitution du paysage politique tchadien.

⚠️ Fait important, le DNIS est souverain et ses résolutions sont exécutoires.
lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/tch…
Dès l’ouverture du #DNIS, les travaux ont été suspendus afin de convaincre les absents de rejoindre les débats, sous l’impulsion de @parfait_onanga, @AUC_MoussaFaki et @Macky_Sall.

Mais qui sont les absents ?
dw.com/fr/tchad-offen…
Read 16 tweets
Aug 23
Ground realities continue to shift the #Israeli-#Palestinian conflict away from the two-state solution that the #EU has long pursued.

The 🇪🇺 badly needs to update its approach.

[Thread] 🧵👇
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
Events in 2021 put Europe’s outdated policy in sharp relief:

The outbreak of violence, including the 11-day #Gaza war, showed how volatile the conflict remains.

Meanwhile, #Israel rejects a negotiated two-state solution & Palestinian leader #Abbas cancelled overdue elections.
Europe blindly hews to its modus operandi: bolstering a faltering #Palestinian Authority against the Islamist group #Hamas, while shying away from serious efforts to encourage change in #Israeli policy.
Read 13 tweets
Aug 22
In 2017, a brutal military crackdown on #Rohingya Muslims in #Myanmar’s Rakhine State forced 730,000 people to flee into neighbouring #Bangladesh.

5 years later, conditions in the camps are dire and prospects for repatriation remain low.

[Thread] 🧵👇
crisisgroup.org/asia/south-eas…
Nearly all of the #Rohingya who fled Myanmar in 2017 remain in sprawling refugee camps across #Bangladesh’s #CoxBazar.

To date, not a single refugee has returned to Rakhine State through the formal repatriation mechanism.
#Myanmar’s government has so far proven unable to provide the #Rohingya with sufficient guarantees around their security, access to citizenship and livelihood opportunities upon return.
Read 14 tweets
Apr 7
Ladakh, often referred to as the world’s highest battlefield, is one of India’s most vulnerable spots in its border dispute with China.

Praveen Donthi journeyed to this barren, frigid plateau to better understand the decades-old conflict 🧵
crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asi…
In summer, Ladakh is bustling with well-off tourists in search of adventure on the Himalayan plateau.

But in the cold winter months, it is one of the most inhospitable places on earth.

It is also the site of simmering tensions between India and China.
But why is this region contested?

Ladakh’s fuzzy borders were created by colonial administrations.

A buffer zone between the two Asian giants vanished after China invaded Tibet and paved the way for the 1962 Sino-Indian war.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 30
The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) is tightening its grip in north eastern Nigeria, following the death of Abubakar Shekau, the leader of its main rival jihadist group.

As ISWAP’s power grows, how should Abuja and its neighbours respond? 🧵crisisgroup.org/africa/west-af…
2/ ISWAP, Boko Haram’s most powerful faction, has decimated its main rival Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS), advanced into rural Borno and resumed military operations against the Nigerian military.

It benefits from the recognition and support of ISIS’ core.
3/ ISWAP’s consolidation of power represents a serious security threat, not only in Nigeria, but also for the region.

The group has consolidated a semblance of governance over the territory it controls and, left unchecked, will likely grow in strength and expand.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 29
Despite the eruption of violence last year, neither Israel nor any outside power has overhauled its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

It’s business as usual & that is the problem.

Unless something changes, future escalation is guaranteed 🧵
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
After PM Netanyahu’s ouster, Western capitals welcomed the new tone and narrative of the coalition government to ‘shrink the conflict’.

Yet this softer tack amounts to little and overall dynamics of occupation, institutionalised discrimination and denial of basic rights persist.
External actors stand by, doing little.

The US has little interest in confronting Israel, illustrated by its muted response to the designation of 6 Palestinian civil society orgs as ‘terrorist groups’.

No European state seems willing to invest political capital.
Read 9 tweets

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