Thread by @CrisisGroup

One step forward, two steps back.

Such is the dance of the diplomatic saga that is the #JCPOA negotiations.

Today, the music has stopped and the #IranNuclearDeal is at risk of collapsing.

[Thread] 🧵👇
crisisgroup.org/b87-middle-eas…

An important reminder: the process is not over.

Parties to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (#JCPOA) continue to express their intention to revive the deal.

Though it seems unlikely today, parties were very close to reaching an agreement in March earlier this year.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine blew the #JCPOA negotiations off the map, and talks lost their momentum.

When the parties reconvened, some of the gaps that the two sides thought they had narrowed or closed had reappeared or even widened.

At the heart of the present stalemate in negotiations are 3 main contentious issues:

1️⃣ @iaeaorg investigation into past Iranian activities involving nuclear material;
2️⃣ the scope of U.S. sanctions relief;
3️⃣ The longevity & reliability of U.S. sanctions relief.

On the whole, negotiations are faltering because both the U.S. & Iran have different endgames in mind, are not speaking directly to each other, and attach too much weight to issues that are of little practical significance or plainly unrealistic.

While the deadlock persists, the stakes are being raised.

Iran’s breakout time today is 4 days, warns our senior Iran analyst @AliVaez.

Meanwhile, Iran refuses to cooperate with the @iaeaorg & the U.S. is imposing new sanctions.

With the U.S.'s campaign of maximum pressure versus Iran’s campaign of maximum resistance, major escalation looms.

Frictions are growing around points of contention where swords have crossed before.

How can tensions be managed in a post-#JCPOA era?

In our Twitter Space discussion, @AliVaez spoke about the possibility of more restricted interim deals.

“Limited measures from Iran and the U.S. would at least prevent the lose-lose dynamic that we’re currently in from turning into an absolute tragedy.”
twitter.com/i/spaces/1jMKg…

Single-measure deals could help manage tensions and keep the diplomatic path open.

For example, Iran could dilute its existing uranium stockpile in return for the U.S. lifting restrictions on Iran’s oil exports.

The clock is ticking & it raises the odds against the parties striking a final deal.

If diplomatic efforts drag on or hit a dead end, a military confrontation can’t be ruled out.

While there may be a military 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 – there’s no military 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 to the crisis.

There are plenty of tripwires and red lines.

While continuing their #JCPOA dance, the U.S. and Iran should at least watch their step.

It wouldn’t only buy them more time, but it would also avert nuclear & regional escalation.
crisisgroup.org/b87-middle-eas…