The #AlShabaab bombing in Mogadishu this weekend was meant as retaliation and deterrent against Somali government forces. Somali federal and local forces are putting serious pressure on al Shabaab in central and SW Somalia. (1/8)
An #AlShabaab suicide bomber attacked new Somali National Army (SNA) recruits in Mogadishu on Sep 25, killing at least 11 soldiers and wounding 18 others. Al Shabaab inflated the death toll to 32 in its claim. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…. (2/8)
#AlShabaab has signaled it will escalate operations in Mogadishu in response to the SFG and clan militia offensive in central and SW Somalia. @USAfricaCommand and @ATMIS_Somalia are also providing air and logistical support to Somali forces. criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-…. (3/8) Image
Al Shabaab branded the Sep 25 bombing as a “preemptive strike.” Its spokesperson also said that al Shabaab had taken up the Somali president on his challenge and “see which one of us is left standing.” (4/8)
#Somali security forces have increased their efforts to secure the capital since the Hayat Hotel attack in late August. criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-… (5/8)
Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (#NISA) forces have claimed to disrupt two different #alShabaab cells in Mogadishu since September 17. . (6/8)
#SNA forces spearheaded by US-trained #Danab special forces and Turkish-trained #Gorgor commandos have destroyed several #alShabaab courts, financial centers, and other hideouts in areas of Lower Shabelle near Mogadishu throughout September. voanews.com/a/somali-milit…. (7/8)
#AlShabaab will likely escalate efforts to target the government, security forces, and clan elders in Mogadishu to disrupt the anti–al Shabaab offensive in central and SW Somalia. (8/8)

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More from @criticalthreats

Sep 26
Key #Iranian military leaders may be endorsing President Ebrahim #Raisi to succeed Ali #Khamenei as #Iran’s next supreme leader. Here is what happened and why it matters: (1/8)
Senior Iranian military officials published an open letter praising Raisi’s #UN General Assembly address on 9/21. These letters are rare and used by officials to signify their political positions to the wider regime. Some of the #IRGC’s senior commanders signed this letter. (2/8)
These IRGC commanders include a tight circle of senior officers who often influence and intervene in domestic politics to promote their hardline agendas. They have established the IRGC as the most dominant actor in Iran. Read more here: (3/8)
criticalthreats.org/wp-content/upl…
Read 8 tweets
Sep 26
NEW | #Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to overcome fundamental structural challenges in attempting to mobilize large numbers of Russians to continue his war in #Ukraine. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Ukrainian forces likely liberated the town of #Shevchenko in #Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces are contesting #Russian positions around #Karpivka, #Nove, #Ridkodub, and #Novoserhiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
#Ukrainian forces likely control #Maliivka in #Kharkiv Oblast.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 25
Protests have been documented in 30 of #Iran's 31 provinces as #Mahsa_Amini demonstrations enter their tenth consecutive day. 1/4 #IranProtests
Footage circulating on social media suggests that protests have occurred in over 93 #Iranian cities and towns following #MahsaAmini’s death on September 16th. 2/4
Documented demonstrations have mostly occurred in northwestern Iran—specifically #Tehran, #Kurdistan, and #Mazandaran Provinces—but remain scattered throughout the country. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 24
Uncorroborated reports suggest that #Iran is mobilizing its proxies to suppress ongoing #MahsaAmini protests. If true, #proxy participation may indicate that Iran fears disloyalty among security personnel and requires additional manpower to quell unrest. 1/4 #IranProtests
Social media users reported that #Iranian leadership is seeking to mobilize 4,000 #Hezbollah members to participate in Iranian domestic protest suppression. CTP cannot independently corroborate these reports. 2/4
This isn't the first time we're hearing these reports: #Iranian leadership has long been suspected of deploying proxies to support security forces' crackdowns in prior protest waves, like the 2009 Green Movement. 3/4 voanews.com/a/iran-hints-a…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 23
The #Iranian regime has likely deployed its #Artesh Ground Forces to suppress ongoing protests surrounding #MahsaAmini’s death. Here’s why it matters: 1/5
An Iranian official and state-affiliated media confirmed that an Artesh Ground Forces officer died in clashes with protesters in Khorasan Razavi Province, corroborating social media reports that Iranian leadership had deployed the Artesh to crack down on demonstrations. 2/5
The Artesh Ground Forces’ deployment could signal limited bandwidth of other security units—like the #Basij and #LEC—as the regime continues to crack down on nation-wide protests. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Sep 22
#Iran has expanded internet censorship in recent days, indicating that regime leaders view ongoing protests following #MahsaAmini's death as a serious threat. Here's what we know so far: 1/6
#IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency today confirmed that #Iranian authorities blocked domestic access to #Whatsapp and #Instagram in an attempt to suppress nation-wide unrest. 2/6
Fars added that the ban will remain intact for an unspecified period of time. #قطع_اینترنت #فیلترنت #internetshutdown (t.me/farsna/263268) 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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