🧵(1/ 20) Thoughts on the #US / #Saudi relationship ILO @OPECSecretariat decision: There’s a marked elite / citizenry divide in the US over the relationship: popular opinion is asserting itself in a way neither side wants. 
(2/20) First, important to note that no-one in the #USA who doesn’t work on #saudi issues has been positive towards the regime there. It’s a monarchy, it denies basic human rights, it is based on extracted wealth (discovered by Americans).
(3/20) Pick your reason why: racism, Protestant Work Ethic, dissimilar political systems, diff. values. Any explanation works equally well. (I discussed in a chapter here.) Bottom Line: there is no reservoir of good will for KSA in USA. routledge.com/The-Arab-Gulf-…
(4/20) Most Americans view Saudis as (unworthy?) beneficiaries of incredible wealth who continue to prosper under a US-funded security umbrella while they pursue a barbaric system of government. Americans say “we GIVE them weapons,” not “we SELL them weapons.”
(5/20) Saudis, on the other hand, feel Americans don’t understand their security concerns and play fast and loose with vital Saudi interests. In the extreme,they see us as kittens who view the region as a big ball of yarn. They have to live with the consequences of US acts
(6/20) Saudis will cite the @BarackObama Obama #irandeal as the nadir of this (in their view) undergraduate seminar theorizing applied to issues of vital concern without regional consultation. B/c Uncle Sam knows best. Because US arrogance (something Saudis & Iranians agree on)
(7/20). US elites (diplomats, military) inadvertently feed the gap b/c we talk about national partnership while our pops (esp. in USA) only begrudgingly tolerate relation for issues of security and finance. Which is fine in good times or if you are unaccountable to your pop.
(8/20) No diplomat will publicly say “we made a deal: security for oil.” Because, at the gov’t level, we haven’t. But that’s what the public thinks. And they have different expectations than the elites. KSA pop wants US aircraft carrier in the Gulf & no #iran deal…
(9/20) US pop wants cheap gas (not oil) and some progress (or at least no backsliding, like #jamalkhashoggi ) on human rights. We’re willing to move past the latter for the former, but human rights IS a thing. Elites tend to deal w/ HR pro-forma (b/c its really really hard) BUT
(10/20) BUT a lack of #saudi progress on human rights has a slow, corrosive effect on #USA popular support. It’s corrosion on the relationship, not a breach, but it builds up over time & when there’s a major stress it leads to a breach.
(11/20) Meanwhile, Saudis look at the constantly changing USA panel of leaders and new theories trotted out as policy by bright young people who haven’t lived there, and ask if they are partners or lab rats. So the entire relationship has corrosion built into it on both sides..
(12/20) Ships sail for decades w/ corrosion, but a major stress leads to a breach. We’re in one now. Why? 1. Team @POTUS suspects Saudi @OPEC move was to harm him in mid-terms — this is dirty pool and harkens back to spt of #trump 2. Saudis look at ongoing pointless #Iran talk
(13/20) … unaffected by #IranProtests2022 & say “they can’t be this stupid, there must be something else there.” 3. Saudis unnerved by #Afghanistan bug out and think they could be next (and ignore vital lesson: US patience w/ lack of reform on HR/corruption is not unlimited) …
(14/20) 4. US is united in opposing #RussianColonialism in #ukraine & views #oilprice hike not as sovereign Saudi economic decision but rather as treachery: supporting #Putin in critical time. Saudis misread the US mood, but that’s b/c US media played a 15 year long drumbeat…
(15/20) that US is divided politically and there is a roughly 50/50 split on every issue. Saudis read US media; but on #Ukraine️ aid US is pretty united (same w/ opposing #china aggression). So there are bad calls on both sides. How to fix?
(16/20) First, US can end the #irantalks charade. In light of #IranProtests2022 , the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. @Rob_Malley did his best — blame #Trump . Second, #SaudiArabia needs to show the King’s favor towards political prisoners, esp. women. Pardons are in order.
(17/20) third, political damage of oil price hikes is done, but security damage can be mitigated. Saudi sends oil (at a discount) to Europe for winter. This won’t be noticed in USA until after midterms, but will be noticed. And it will restore KSA as trusted security partner.
(18/20) Yes, I know Europe needs LNG, but energy is energy and we’re talking about perceptions here. The aim is to show Saudi understands oil prices in the context of #ukrainewar are security issues, not just economic, and KSA is on side. Right now, Oil $ is a weapon for #Putin
(19/20) We’re talking about a beneficial, enduring but not unlimited relationship. Unfortunately, we’re being driven by emotions and tweeted statements of hurt / outrage/ concern. Step back, look at our mutual interests, and proceed accordingly.
(20/20) Comments? @GulfStatesInst @GulfIntlForum @WarOnTheRocks @thegulfblog @Dr_Ulrichsen @esoubrier @NeilQuilliam1 @CH_MENAP @mulhim12 @abaabood @MiddleEastInst @KSAMOFA @ArabCenterWDC @FlorenceGaub @US_SaudiBiz @CENTCOM @kfcris_en @GulfStateAnalyt @MidEastPolicy
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