Obviously, I'm not predicting that we're going away from it as a reserve currency. Not deliberately, anyway.
But military might, a value derived from underlying commodities (RIP 1971), and trust (RIP 202X?) are historically the 3 musketeers keeping reserve currencies on top.
/3
Aramis (gold standard), and arguably Athos (trust), is either dead or in a coma.
Porthos (military) still doing quite well, although getting very bloated.
Without D'Artagnan (petrodollar system), the tide would be overwhelming and we'd be having #Weimar chats now.
/end
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Peak stupidity going forward would be rebuilding destroyed coastal areas, or buying anything below 50 ft above sea level.
If you own properties by the beach, you're going to want to sell while you can still get a decent price.
Might not be much profit left to get in 20~ years.
Rebuilding something that almost certainly will be underwater in a few decades will just add unnecessary (yet emotionally understandable "sunk cost" fallacy) pollution, and exacerbate/ramp up the climate crisis.
For longevity, populations must move higher, and more inland.
USA Timeline
'46-'70: Trust us, we're stable. No corruption here. We can be the trusted currency.
'71: Aaactually...
'72-'20: Hah, we can just erode EVERY OTHER NATION'S buying power, no consequences for us! PRIIIIIIIINT!
'21: Buy our debt or we all suff-.. oh, you already are.😱
Part of the underlying mentality of Bretton-Woods in 1946, when the #USD became the world's reserve #currency, was an acknowledgment of the lessons learned during the inter-war years.
One of the key areas weighted was the concept of economic security to ensure post-war peace.
A quote by Cordell Hull (U.S. Secretary of State, '33-'44) reflects his belief that the fundamental causes of the two world wars lay in economic discrimination and trade warfare:
Unhampered trade dovetailed with peace; high tariffs, trade barriers, and unfair economic...
In a complex financial world where everybody needs to have a Masters/PhD in math, economics, engineering, physics (or similar) to be taken seriously - what are the odds that market cycles, a result of the human psyche (@HowardMarksBook), become quantified into risky simplicity?
Yes, of course, fundamentals matter. Of course, statistics matter.
But the main reason we have cycles, the main reason we have excess fear and excess greed isn't because of the numbers - it's because of the psychological reaction humans have to the numbers.
That matters.
We have broken down everything in the markets to fit into nifty little spreadsheets and mathematical formulas, claiming the system is more robust, can take more leverage, and that there's nothing to fear because we'll see it coming in our gaussian distribution sims.
Did someone warn you of the current #inflation, #recession, and #bearmarket in equities? Did you get out or reallocate in time? Breaking even? Maybe even profit?
Did you pay a subscription for those warnings late last year?
I started warning friends about it in 2016.
Read on🧵
When I said that I was warning my friends about it in 2016, I did so because it was clear that #Trump would not be a good president for the US & world #economy long-term, and would increase the odds of #inflation and rising #interestrates.
Late 2016 DMs in Norwegian to a friend:
But why am I not linking Twitter screenshots? Well, I haven't been on here for even two years yet, so my oldest conversations are in private FB chats with friends and family, as those were the only people I tried to warn.
2018 chats about #Euribor annual hedging puts re #ECB: