Thread by @criticalthreats

#AlShabaab conducted two suicide bombings targeting key bridges in central #Somalia, likely to disrupt the ongoing anti-al Shabaab offensive and set conditions for larger counterattacks on vulnerable positions. (1/9)

Al Shabaab targeted two main bridges crossing the Shabelle River in #BuloBurde and #Jalalaqsi with near-simultaneous suicide vehicle-borne IEDs. Security forces reportedly thwarted the bomber in Jalalaqsi before he reached the bridge.

https://twitter.com/sntvnews1/status/1582741033502183424?s=20&t=BMvTDV74wDBOlQxulylsmw

(2/9)

These two bridges are major crossing points over the Shabelle river in southern Hiraan. Al Shabaab damaging the bridges will slow potential reinforcements and other troop movements throughout the region.

https://twitter.com/sntvnews1/status/1582720115421761536?s=20&t=BMvTDV74wDBOlQxulylsmw

(3/9)

These bombings could be the precursor to larger attacks on now-vulnerable positions that security forces may struggle to reach. They could also be meant to slow down preparation for more anti-al Shabaab operations in Middle Shabelle and Galgadud. (4/9)

These bombings also signal al Shabaab’s focus on disrupting its opponents’ supply lines. Al Shabaab attempted to disrupt key roadways around Bulo Burde in early October with large-scale attacks in Jicibow, Yasooman, and Beraybal. criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of… (5/9)

Anti-al Shabaab reinforcements from various positions in central Somalia were still able to help repel these attacks despite likely sustaining heavy casualties, however.

https://twitter.com/HShPrez2Ware/status/1580538877667704832?s=20&t=wFjMcM6Itm_W7q2wxYwpAA

(6/9)

Al Shabaab’s suicide attacks targeting the bridges could indicate a tactical shift to disrupt its oppositions’ supply lines without suffering the costs of the group’s large-scale infantry attacks in early October.
(7/9)

These attacks also highlight the sophisticated capabilities that anti-al Shabaab forces will contend with if al Shabaab mounts a serious defense of its positions in central Somalia. (8/9)

You can find more in-depth analysis of on the fighting in central Somalia by reading @liam_karr’s piece here: criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-…

You can also read our tri-weekly Gulf of Aden Security Review covering security news in Yemen and Somalia here: criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of… (9/9)