#IranProtests have subsided in extent and scale in recent days but may increase on October 20 and 26. Here’s what else you need to know today from CTP and @TheStudyofWar’s daily Iran Crisis Update: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
Anti-regime groups called for protests on October 26, which will mark 40 days since #MahsaAmini’s death. Iranians commonly hold a commemoration on the 40th day after a person’s death and protest organizations may seek to use this date to reignite demonstrations.
The #IRGC continued to threaten #Azerbaijan militarily for allegedly hosting #Israeli intelligence agents on October 19.
Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei gave a speech praising Iranian academics in a meeting with Iranian university science students and faculty members on October 19.

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More from @criticalthreats

Oct 21
#Russian forces are likely setting conditions to remove military and occupation elements from the west bank of the #Dnipro River in anticipation of imminent #Ukrainian advances. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… 1/4 Image
#Russian sources continued to claim that Russian forces are consolidating limited regained positions in northeastern #Kharkiv Oblast on October 20 despite Ukrainian reports that Ukraine has liberated all but 1.8% of Kharkiv Oblast. 2/4 Image
#Russian sources indicated that #Ukrainian troops have advanced in northern #Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 20
NEW | #Putin’s October 19 declaration of martial law readiness is largely legal theater meant to legitimize activities the #Russian military needs to undertake or is already undertaking. Read today's update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Putin declared varying levels of “martial law readiness” across #Russia and in #Russian-occupied #Ukrainian territories.
#Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in #Kherson Oblast.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 19
#AlShabaab conducted two suicide bombings targeting key bridges in central #Somalia, likely to disrupt the ongoing anti-al Shabaab offensive and set conditions for larger counterattacks on vulnerable positions. (1/9)
Al Shabaab targeted two main bridges crossing the Shabelle River in #BuloBurde and #Jalalaqsi with near-simultaneous suicide vehicle-borne IEDs. Security forces reportedly thwarted the bomber in Jalalaqsi before he reached the bridge. (2/9)
These two bridges are major crossing points over the Shabelle river in southern Hiraan. Al Shabaab damaging the bridges will slow potential reinforcements and other troop movements throughout the region. (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
Oct 19
#Russian forces continued to target critical #Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with air, missile, and drone strikes on October 18. Read today's update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar:
criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… (1/4)
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in northeastern #Kharkiv Oblast to regain lost positions on October 18. (2/4)
Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations across the entire frontline in #Kherson Oblast on October 18. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Oct 19
Supreme Leader #Khamenei's refusal to concede on the mandatory hijab law is likely driving fissures among #Iran's political elite. #IranProtests (1/4)
criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
The ongoing crackdown demonstrates how heavily the regime has begun using advanced and emerging technologies to impose social control. (2/4)
Protest organizations called for demonstrations in #West_Azerbaijan, #Ilam, #Kermanshah, and #Kurdistan provinces on October 19. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Oct 18
#Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout #Ukraine on October 17. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… (1/4)
#Russian sources continued to discuss potential Ukrainian counteroffensive operations northwest of #Svatove on October 16 and 17. (2/4)
#Russian sources continued to claim that #Ukrainian Forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in #Kherson Oblast on October 16 and 17. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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