Thread by @MusiciScience

The interior of a single virus particle  contains a dense assembly of #ribonucleoproteins (RNPs) that package the genome to form the #nucleocapsid (protein shell of a virus). Notable, it has a cylindrical shape that matches the particle geometry. 1/10
nature.com/articles/s4200…

However, many peope have not understood that these viruses do not #spread exponentially, but in waves (fairy tale of #exponential #growth). 2/10

In this regard, Farr's Law should be mentioned (William #Farr on patterns of #epidemic events), which was banned from the German #wikipedia at the time, but could still be read in the English wikipedia. In the meantime it has marginally reappeared. 3/10
oxfordbrazilebm.com/index.php/covi…

That this is also true for #SARS coronaviruses, which is not mentioned in a word in #wikipedia. However, the "corona waves" showed different patterns (#artifacts) than typical (#seasonal) #flu #waves. 4/10

One explanation could be mass testing at low #prevalence (especially in summer) (infection curves) or #mismanagement in hospitals (e.g. lack of staff, reduction of beds, wrong treatment, etc.) (death curves). 5/10

An anomaly with an additional transient can be seen in the first wave of Italy (see #Euromomo first wave Italy). Compare Germany versus #Italy (Imagesource: Euromomo) 6/10

Furthermore, the so-called #Gompertz function is eminent here. The waves can be described mathematically as #Gaussian curves. The Gaussian bell curve is very roughly the first derivative of a Gompertz curve. 7/10
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32899971/

The #Gompertz curve starts as an exponential curve but then runs into a limit since there can be no infinite growth in a limited nature. According to Gompertz, #herd immunity would be the reason. 8/10

In the case of #influenza, current knowledge suggests that it is the weather that stalls the #exponential growth at the beginning without even approaching herd #immunity.

The Imperial College's #Ferguson study for #Sweden shows what can go wrong in science. See diagram of the deaths predicted by Imperial College's Ferguson study for Sweden due to #COVID19 and the real death numbers (red). 10/10
Credits @aya_velazquez
linkedin.com/posts/tomfgood…