Thread by @elisabethmalom1

🧵My latest: Turkey's first nuclear plant built and financed by subsidiary of #Russia's Rosatom will be operational in 2023. Under the agreement, Moscow may establish a commercial port in #Turkey with likely national and international security implications
al-monitor.com/originals/2022…

2. The Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is located in a highly strategic location, some 200km from Cyprus and #NATO’s Kurecik early-warning radar station as well as near the Syrian border. It bills itself as the “biggest project in the history of #Russian-#Turkish relations"

3. While an original agreement for the construction was signed in 2010 between Akkuyu Nukleer (Rosatom subsidiary) and the Turkish firm IC Ictas, it was later on terminated and a new one was signed in July 2022 for TSM (owned by 3Russia-based firms) to undertake remaining work.

4. The estimated 20USD billion plant ultimately seems to favor #Russia, as it was funded almost entirely by Rosatom and provides its entities with a majority stake. Some reports say that Moscow retains anywhere between 51 to 99.2 percent of the shares.

5. Several clauses in the contract are concerning given current international climate: allowing for development/construction of all necessary supportive infrastructure without any limitations, permitting technology transfers & exchange of info between parties in nuclear field

6. According to a #Turkish defense expert who wished to remain anonymous, "depending on #Russian-Turkish relations there is nothing to prevent Russian ships from being used in the region for purposes such as logistical supplies."

7. With reports that Russia has been misusing Turkish straits for commercial purposes, using civilian cargo vessels to transport materials for military ops in #Syria and Ukraine, there is a risk that Akkuyu plant could be used in a similar way to advance regional Russian interest

8. Back in 2015, at the peak of the Russian offensive in Syria, it had been uncovered that Moscow was buying nearly obsolete ships from Turkish firms, rebranding them under new names and using them to transport food, ammunition, fuel and small arms to its soldiers.

9. When asked how likely it would be for Russia to use potential port for commercial purposes to avoid bans, Dmitry Gorenburg, senior research scientist at CNA, said, “That could certainly happen as Russia is working hard on ways to circumvent sanctions.”

10. However, it's improbable the facility could be exploited for military purposes as the Russian Navy already operates a large naval base in Tartus, #Syria, some 250 kilometers from province of Mersin where the plant is being built. That wouldn't be very advantageous.

11. #Turkey’s political opposition has aired other concerns over the plant. Most recently, opposition lawmaker Ali Mahir Basarir questioned the abnormal amount of land given to #Russia for the project at 10 times that allotted to similar plants operating elsewhere.

12. High levels of movement between Turkish port of Mersin & Russia’s Novorossiysk have also drawn attention amid concerns. Btw Oct 31-Nov13, on average 52 ships arrived daily in Mersin, largely offshore supply vessels, containers as well as dry break bulk.

13. In Aug 22, Delo Group largest Russian private holdings for freight forwarding owned at 49% by Rosatom announced it would operate fortnightly service between the 2 ports, w/ southbound loads including cargo for plant's construction & return freight of Turkish industrial prod.

14. Some Turkish media reports have also claimed that the Mersin port has become a transit hub for #Russian imports where once goods arrive, they are loaded onto ships of Turkish shipping firms heading to Russia without being declared as imports in #Turkey.

15. Ongoing procurement tenders listed on the Akkuyu JSC website also show several contractors request for provision of freight forwarding services related to intern. transportation/delivery of cargo from Russian cities Syzran, Sosnovy Bon & Perm.

16. It is interesting to note that these cities are where Russian pilots and naval officers are trained while also being home to the world's largest nuclear power plant and an international military airport operating fighters and bomber planes.

17. Another major issue to have sparked controversy was related to Russia's responsibility to ensure protection of NPP, as to which entity would produce the air radar(s). As Akkuyu Nukleer's board of directors only has a SINGLE Turkish member, it seemed Russia would supply it.

18.However, this said Turkish member, Cuneyd Zapsu, formally conveyed his disapproval stating that this decision would be incompatible with Turkish security policies. It was later on announced #Aselsan would supply this radar.

19. Despite this, there also a number of active tenders on JSC website for the delivery of additional communication equipment and in 1 instance a bid closed in Sept 2022 where the end-user listed was NOT Turkey but Russia's Rosatom Service.

20. Over coming months, greater attention will likely be directed to monitoring plant's development via Turkey-#NATO cooperation efforts to ensure Russia doesn't overstep or misuse its powers.

21. Events in #Ukraine have shown to what extent construction and control of a power plant on territory of a country by a foreign state can pose a fundamental threat to energy and national security. Russia has previously used such infrastructure as a weapon during active conflict