TODAY IN THE MARKETS
$SPX
A low #CPI triggered a 114-point jump that took it above the dominant trendline. At the open, sell orders above that level initiated a pullback that took it 126 points down to the 20DMA
Not what we would call a 1-day reversal, more upside to come #SPX
$DIA
Same picture for #DIA, sell orders above Dec 1 high pushed the #DJI lower
It went down after an impressive initial rally
Bounced from 20DMA
•Sticky inflation
•Tight labor market
•Higher for longer
• #Rates, #Dollar ↑
•Negative breadth and classic indicators divergences
•Fed speakers will be hawkish
•VIX/VVIX at important support with positive divergences
•Bond auction failure
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
• $VIX and $VVIX below 200DMA & strong downtrend
•Positive $Gamma
•Leading stocks breakout
•Bullish and daily weekly candles
•No recession
•Leading sectors about to breakout
•Core $CPI will decelarates
#ES #SPX $SPY #SPX #BullMarket #futures
Our Take
•Market to move up on Monday
• Market will pullback hard once it hit resistance
•4435 to be strong resistance
•Expecting sector breakouts to improve breadth on next two weeks
• $VIX and $VVIX to bounce, but remain in downtrend
•Geopolitical tensions
•Sticky inflation
•Tight labor market
•Higher for longer
• #Rates, #Dollar and Vol upward
•Bearish weekly chart on all indices
• #AAPL to report poorly
•Negative $Gamma
• $FOMC
#ES_F $SPY #0dte #SPX #BearMarket #trade
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
•Indices are at/near important support
• FED to soften tone
• $VIX and $VVIX near important resistance
• Market breadth indis double dip
• $FAANG stocks bounced on high volume on Friday
• Market is extremely oversold
•4074 is a hard floor
#ES
Our Take
•Expecting $SPX futures to open positive on Sunday and SPX to close positive on Monday
•Looks like #SPX needs an extra flush before bouncing hard
•FEDs won't be too hawkish
•4074 is a hard floor to bounce from
•Expecting #VVIX to break support
• Increasing #Geopolitical tensions
•Sticky inflation
•Higher for longer
• #Rates and #Dollar are rising
•Weekly Bearish Engulfing candles with higher volume accross all indices
• $VIX and $VVIX breakout
#ES_F $SPY #0dte #SPX #BearMarket #trade
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
•All indices are at/near important support
•Big tech earnings will push the market higher
• $VIX will reverse down
• #Market breadth indis are at/near extremely low readings
• $FAANG stocks at important support
• Market is oversold
#ES_F $SPY
Our Take
•Expecting $SPX futures to open positive on Sunday and SPX to close positive on Monday
•If #SPX goes down on Monday it will trigger a sharp oversold rally
•Bulls need $VIX to fall back below 20.75
•4181 could be tested, but market will bounce from there
• #Israel - #Palestine war
•Fed: Higher for longer
•Rates at 16-year high
• #Dollar & $TNX uptrending
•New downward structure still in play
•October's bearish seasonality
•Oversold rally will fail
#ES_F $SPY #0dte #SPX #BearMarket #trade
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
•Big one-day reversal
•Bullish daily candles
•Indices bounced from important support
• $VIX reversed down and generated buy signal
• #VVIX reversed down
• Breadth thrust on Friday
• Coming earnings will help the market
#ES_F $SPY #SPX
Our Take
• 4220/4200 should hold war-generated pullback
• $VIX can spike again, but won't go above last week high
•4350 Big resistance
•Need to see how MidEast war affects markets
•Bounce alive until it breaks below 4200
•Fed: Higher for longer
•Rates at 16-year high
• #Dollar & $TNX uptrending
•Negative #Gamma
•New downward structure
•September's bearish seasonality
•Bearish weekly candles
•VVIX to remain high
#ES_F $SPY #0dte #SPX #BearMarket #trade
🧵 →
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
•Market to bounce
•4300 will be a temporary floor
•Indices at important support
• $VIX at resistance
•Oversold market
• Positive indicators divergence
•Coming earnings will help to float the market $MU $NKE $COST
#ES_F $SPY #BullMarket #SPX
NEXT WEEK
Our Take
• $SPX futures to open positive on Sunday and market to close positive on Monday
•4300 will hold for a few more days
• Expecting $VIX to pull back
•Market bounce will fail at 4375 or 4390
•4352 big resistance
•Hard landing
• #Dollar & $TNX uptrending
•Negative #Gamma
•Leading sectors and stocks breaking down
•Bearish seasonality
• Powell's #FOMC speech will be hawkish
• Friday's bearish impulsive candles
#ES_F $SPY #0dte #SPX #BearMarket #trade
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
•Market to open higher on Sunday, and close positive on Monday
•4430 will hold as suppport
•Indices and sectors at important support
• #VIX and #VVIX weak bounce
• Fed's pause will push the market up
• $DXY and $TNX to pull back
#ES_F $SPY
NEXT WEEK
Our Take
•4430 major $Gamma support
•4400 will hold as support if tested
• Expecting $DXY and $TNX to pullback
•4400/4500 range for the week
• #VIX and $VVIX still in downtrend
•Sideways market