We should look at the indices that have led the recent moves up and down: $DJI, $IWM, $DJT, #S5TH.
The #DJI has a more defined Noise Box. It broke out of it last Friday, and did so on higher volume, closing above 50DMA and 20DMA. Bullish, DJI should continue up on Monday
$SPX
$DJT has as $DJI a more defined Noise Box. It broke out of it yesterday in higher volume, closing above 20DMA, and like $SPX rigth at the 50DMA
The general look of this chart is bullish short term, so a continuation rally is on the menu for next week
It came out of the Noise Box, and volume has been higher on bullish days, but we need to see more strength here to favor near-term bullish expectations
•Recession is around the corner
• Rates ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
•CPI is coming
• Bearish monthly engulfing candle on the main indexes
• Charts of market leaders are broken
•Bearish flag on the index charts
•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
• $DJI and $DJT broke above consolidation
•Higher volume on up days
• $VIX in strong donwtrend
• $VVIX broke below support, is at 2017 levels
•Positive divergence from classic indicators
•Breadth is + #SPX
• Rates, dollar, employment ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
• $VIX and $VVIX are above 20DMA and uptrending
• $SPX closed below 200, 100, 50 and 20 DMA
• Negative #Gamma regime
• Leading sectors are breaking down
$ES_F $SPX $SPY #SPX#VIX#trading
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
•Seasonality favors up movement
•It was all about heavy $GEX & #Quad witching day
•Indices are very near strong support
• $VIX and $VVIX still in donwtrend
• Breadth indicator (#S5TH) is still holding #SPX
TODAY IN THE MARKETS
$SPX
A low #CPI triggered a 114-point jump that took it above the dominant trendline. At the open, sell orders above that level initiated a pullback that took it 126 points down to the 20DMA
Not what we would call a 1-day reversal, more upside to come #SPX
$DIA
Same picture for #DIA, sell orders above Dec 1 high pushed the #DJI lower
It went down after an impressive initial rally
Bounced from 20DMA
• Rates, inflation, dollar, employment ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
• $VIX above TL and 20DMA
• All indices broke below 20DMA
• Negative #Gamma regime
• Dealers are now net short
•Quadruple witching: large negative stack at 3900
$ES_F $SPX $SPY
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
• Indexes on lower weekly volume
• Breadth indicators still holding
• Indexes are at important supports
• Seasonality favors ↑movement
• Lower #CPI would push the market ↑
• Market ↑ on 50 bps rate hike