Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Jan 11 11 tweets 8 min read
#Russia's war vs #Ukraine - "The Russian navy has survived this war largely intact" per @USNavy Office of Naval Intelligence Commander RADM Michael Studeman told @INSAlliance Wednesday
"The Russian navy., although losing its flagship there in the #BlackSea, continues to fire cruise missiles at a certain pace w/ships & submarines that remain fairly close to the #Crimea" per RADM Studeman
"The #Ukrainians are looking for ways & have come up w/very innovative maritime techniques to be able to make life hard for the #Russia|n aggressors & that give & take will continue for some time" per RADM Studeman
#Ukraine grain exports out of #BlackSea ports - "The maritime routes have been obviously constrained" per RADM Studeman

"The Russians continue to play a game of throttling the amount of exports...via inspections north of the #Bosporus"
#Ukraine grain exports being throttled by #Russia - "They [Russia] meter those make life very difficult for throughput there even having agreed to the #BlackSea. grain initiative initiative" per RADM Studeman
#Russia naval activity in the high north-"They've militarized that area" per RADM Studeman

"They aim to structure themselves w/lots of weaponry, lots of capability, essentially from the #KaraSea all the way to the #BeringSea"
#Russia has 3 Severodvinsk-class (SSGN) nuclear power submarines deployed, more being built

"They have started doing their patrols in the #Atlantic holding the #UnitedStates at risk in some of their patrol areas. And they recently moved one into the Pacific" per RADM Studeman
"The #Russia|n [naval] threat & the way they intend to use their force for a variety of different purposes remains of deep concern" per RADM Studeman
Move by #Sweden, #Finland to join @NATO -w/boost to NATO's maritime capabilities- will help "make sure that #Russia thinks twice about advancing anywhere else on its periphery" per RADM Studeman
"Here, the stakes have to be higher because deterrence failed in #Ukraine" per RADM Studeman "And so the intent is for it not to fail anywhere else there on the western flank of #Russia"

#Sweden #Finland @NATO
Who was behind the sabotage of the #Nordstream pipelines 1&2 in September 2022?

"There are still some unknowns there" per RADM Studeman "The sabotage is confirmed based on what we know so far but we haven't ruled out any guilty party at this stage of the game"

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More from @jseldin

Jan 12
US intelligence making a case to renew sweeping communication surveillance powers granted under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act - set to expire this year

"FISA Section 702 is irreplaceable" @CYBERCOM_DIRNSA Gen Paul Nakasone told @PCLOB_GOV Thursday
#FISA establishes rules US intelligence agencies when surveilling foreign powers and agents

Section 702-added in 2008-allows for targeted surveillance of electronic communications of foreign persons outside of the US

BUT critics argue it subjects Americans to unlawful searches
US intel officials, like @CYBERCOM_DIRNSA, call #FISA Section 702 a critical tool

Sec. 702 "plays an outsized role in protecting the nation, providing some of the US gvt's most valuable intelligence on our most challenging targets...It provides unique information w/minimal risk"
Read 14 tweets
Jan 12
Just in: Senate Intelligence Committee chairman @MarkWarner calls just released Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (#UAP) report "a step forward in understanding & addressing risks to aviators"

Also says reporting increase is "a sign of decreased stigma among pilots..." Image
Just in: Pentagon on just released #UAP/#UFO report from @ODNIgov

"The safety of our service personnel, our bases & installations, & the protection of US operations...are paramount" per @PentagonPresSec

"We take reports of incursions...seriously & examine each one" Image
More: Reaction from Senate Intelligence Committee vice chair @marcorubio to release of US intelligence #UAP/#UFO report

"We are making important progress in our ongoing efforts to understand these activities & what threat they may pose...However, more needs to be done" Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
BREAKING: @ODNIgov publishes its long-awaited 2022 Annual Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (#UAP / #UFO)

Looks at a total of 510 reports thru August 30, 2022
dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
"#UAP events continue to occur in restricted or sensitive airspace, highlighting possible concerns for safety of flight or adversary collection activity..." per @ODNIgov
"...This may result from a collection bias due to the number of active aircraft & sensors, combined w/
focused attention and guidance to report anomalies" per @ODNIgov
Read 6 tweets
Jan 11
#China naval threat-"What you've seen is a buildup in every warfare area w/advanced systems, long range weapons, electronic warfare capability, innovative technology, a blue water fleet along w/other vessels" Office of US Naval Intelligence RADM Michael Studeman told @INSAlliance
#China navy "can do a whole bunch of the patrolling &the coersion around #Taiwan to maintain what they are trying to do which is effective control over what they claim in the #SouthChinaSea w/pressure tactics in the Senkakus, more activity in the Philippine Sea" per RADM Studeman
"Please don't underestimate #China" per RADM Studeman

"We don't just look at the maritime navy elements of what China is up. We have to be concerned about other things like the illegal & unreported & unregulated fishing activities"
Read 10 tweets
Jan 11
#Iran naval threat - "The pressure, the coercion, the activity against merchant ships comes & goes, & surges depending on circumstances" @USNavy Office of Naval Intelligence Commander RADM Michael Studeman told @INSAlliance Wednesday
"#Iran continues to make UAVs & other unmanned capabilities like hotcakes. We've even seen a new drone carrier that they're building" per RADM Studeman
#Iran-"We have to be very mindful, not just in terms of their ballistic missile program development, trying to develop anto-ship capabilities but the whole #IRGCN, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps & what they are building & how they are using their forces" per RADM Studeman
Read 5 tweets
Jan 10
#alQaida's #Zawahiri "was the singular leader" per NCTC's Abizaid

"He was both symbolically important but also strategically important for what was a diverse network of affiliates"
#alQaida's Zawahiri's removal "a strategic & symbolic setback" per Abizaid

'The loss of him as that center of gravity does kind of test the ties that bind the rest of these affiliates, whether it's #Yemen based affiliate w/#AQAP, whether it's #JNIM...whether it's #Shabaab"
Who's #alQaida's next leader - unclear, per NCTC's Abizaid

"The best candidates are Saif al-Adel & Abdul Rahman al-Maghrebi, that are sitting in #Iran"
Read 5 tweets

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