Thread by @quakes99

1)#Russia's war on #Ukraine🪖 led to prices for #Uranium Conversion & Enrichment SWU more than doubling in 2022⏫ in a price wave🌊 cascading down #Nuclear fuel cycle towards mined #U3O8⛏️ as per Cantor Fitzgerald👇 as enrichers switch to "overfeeding".🍼🍼 A thread for U!👨‍🏫🧵👇2

2)#Uranium is a very different fuel than #coal & #gas that are burned "as is" in #electricity power plants.🏭⚡️ #Nuclear reactor fuel needs to be specially processed & then packaged into fuel rods that are then loaded into reactors to generate #CarbonFree electricity.🌞⚛️⚡️👇../3

3)Mined #Uranium⛏️ is processed into drums of Yellow Cake #U3O8🛢️ that in the west are shipped🚢🚛 to plants in Canada, US & France for "Conversion" into a gas form called #UF6 which is then shipped in cylinders🚛 to plants in US & Europe for "Enrichment" into #Nuclear fuel.⚛️👇4

4)Enriched #Uranium (EUP) is then shipped🚛 to a fuel fabrication plant🏭 where it is processed into solid "Pellets" that are loaded into reactor fuel rods which are bundled into "fuel assemblies" ready to be shipped🚛 to #Nuclear power plants for loading into reactors⚛️⚡️🌞🧵👇5

5) These stages of #Uranium processing are together called the "#Nuclear Fuel Cycle".⚛️ Operators of reactors have to sign contracts🧾 with companies providing Mining, Conversion, Enrichment, Fuel Fabrication, and as well must arrange shipments between each facility. 🌎🚢🚛🚂👇6

6) With #Uranium having to be shipped to plants in various locations worldwide for each of the #Nuclear fuel cycle stages, as fuel buyers negotiate contracts to get their reactor fuel processed, it can take 2+ years to go from mined #U3O8⛏️ to delivered fuel assemblies.⚛️🦥👇7

7) #Nuclear reactor fuel must be ordered/contracted at least 2 years before it's scheduled for loading into reactors⏳😯 but that lead time can be cut in half✂️ if reactor operators buy already converted UF6 held by a supplier, bypassing #Uranium #mining & conversion stages.🐎👇8

8) Which brings us to "underfeeding."🍼 Without getting too technical👶 after Fukushima in 2011, demand for enriched #Uranium fell⤵️ but for technical reasons enrichment devices have to be kept spinning at full throttle.🌀 Enrichers switched gears⚙️ to operate differently🏎️👇9

9) Enrichers can spin the #UF6 feed for longer periods to achieve the desired #Uranium enrichment % while using less UF6.😯 A contract might call for 6 x UF6 cylinders, but enricher would only use 5 then sell the extra UF6 back into the market.💰 That was "underfeeding"🍼🧵👇10

10) Underfeeding led to an excess of #UF6 in the market, known as "secondary supply", that #Nuclear utilities could buy instead of signing contracts for Conversion.🧾✖️ Demand & prices for Conversion & mined #U3O8 plummeted.⤵️ Honeywell shut down only US Conversion plant!🇺🇸😯👇11

11) Demand for mined #U3O8 plummeted⬇️⛏️ due to oversupply.♒️ New mine projects were cancelled✖️ many mines closed🏭⛔️ investment in exploration fell off a cliff 💰⤵️ as did #Uranium supply & prices😟even tho #Nuclear fuel demand has been rising year after year!🌞⚛️🏗️↗️👇.../12

12) Today #Nuclear power capacity & #Uranium demand are greater than before Fukushima.⚛️🏗️⤴️🤠🐂 Demand is surging in a global decarbonization drive to achieve #NetZero🌞 and #EnergySecurity in the midst of an #EnergyCrisis.⚡️ A 'Nuclear Renaissance' is now underway!🌞⏫🌊🏄👇13

13) Even before #Russia invaded #Ukraine, upending fuel markets🪖💣 #Nuclear demand was circa 200 Million lbs of #Uranium in 2022, versus mined supply at only 135 Million lbs.🤯 'Underfeeding' was providing about 20M lbs/year of Secondary Supply for net -45M lbs deficit⚛️⛏️⏬👇14

14) #Russia had been supplying 39% of global enriched #Uranium, 27% of Conversion & 14% of mined U supply.⚛️⛏️ #Nuclear utilities in US & Europe are now pivoting away from Russian supply🇷🇺⛏️⛔️ with shipping also disrupted🚢🚛🚂 impacting ~20% of US & #EU Nuclear fuel supply✂️👇15

15) Demand for Western enriched #Uranium & Conversion has surged⤴️⚛️ spiking the prices for enrichment SWU & Conversion like never before⏫as #Nuclear utilities scramble to secure alternative non-Russian supply.🛒 Conversion price has spiked to an all-time industry high!🌋👇../16

16) But with the west pivoting away from dependence on #Russia's enriched #Uranium🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️ there's not enough enrichment capacity in US & Europe to meet demand so enrichers that had been 'underfeeding' their plants are performing a magic trick🎩🐇 by switching gears again⚙️🏎️👇17

17) Western enrichers are switching from 'underfeeding' to 'overfeeding'🍼🍼 so they can enrich a lot more #Uranium at a faster pace.🏇 By feeding extra UF6 they can increase production⏫ to replace lost Russian supply, but must buy the extra #UF6 feed in the market!🛒🤠🐂👇18

18) But #Nuclear fuel consultants say that #UF6 supply is running out.🏜️ More Conversion of mined #U3O8 is needed ASAP in order to produce more #UF6.⏫ Cost of Conversion has risen to an all-time high.🌋 Luckily, Honeywell is now restarting their idled US conversion plant🏭🇺🇸👇19

19) As Honeywell ramps up⤴️ #Nuclear utilities must purchase a lot more mined #U3O8🛒⛏️ for conversion to #UF6🏭 so enrichers can "overfeed"🍼🍼 to produce more enriched #Uranium to replace lost Russian supply.🇷🇺⛔️ This is the Shockwave💥 that's about to hit #U3O8 price!🌊⛏️👇20

20) Overfeeding🍼🍼will result in most of the 20M lbs of 'Secondary Supply' disappearing💥 to be replaced by 20M+ lbs of new 'Secondary Demand' which #Nuclear fuel consultants estimate could push today's -45M lbs #Uranium supply deficit to -80M+ lbs over next few years.🤯⏬👇21

21) But there aren't enough idled & new #Uranium mines to meet that massive demand🤷‍♂️ & it can take many years to develop #Uranium deposits into mines🐌 so #U3O8 prices are set to spike very high in an under-supplied market🚀🌜while operating mines are already in decline.⛏️↘️👇22

22) This is why many #Uranium market veterans say that fundamentals today are best they have ever seen in the industry's history.🏆 A record #U3O8 supply deficit⤵️⛏️ is colliding💥 with a global #Nuclear Renaissance⤴️🌞🏗️⚛️ creating a massive investment opportunity 4U 🌊🏄‍♀️💰👇23

23)The #Uranium investment opportunity has never been more bullish!🤠🐂 Shares of high quality U #mining #stocks that underperformed #U3O8 price by ~35% last year🔀are now primed for a very strong recovery.🚀🌜I hope this🧵 has helped U get ready to ride the coming wave.🌊🏄💰☘️

24) Check out my Twitter Moment outlining your choices for #investing in #Uranium #mining #stocks & ETF's💰⚛️⛏️ as the world enters a new #Nuclear Renaissance.🌞🏗️⚡️🌍 Share it around if U find it useful.📨🤠🐂Good luck with your research & investments!🏄 twitter.com/i/events/15868…