Thread by @KumarSeshadri

Countries in the Global South are sensible and pragmatic, and act in the best interests of their people, unlike Western nations which, today, are acting on ideological impulses and often against the best interests of their people. A 🧵. (1/16)

That's why #China will support #Russia economically but not provide it with weapons. They know Russia can win this war on their own, so long as they are supported economically. China will continue to provide technological assistance/dual use items, such as semiconductors. (2/16)

They will buy huge quantities of pipeline gas, #LNG, and oil, because that is a win-win strategy. China needs to develop #Tibet and #Xinjiang and needs cheap energy; Russia needs money and goods that China can produce cheaply. This partnership has defeated US sanctions. (3/16)

But China will not attack #Taiwan, even though the US is itching for that to happen. That would be very foolish of them. China has lots of partnerships with European and American companies, and an invasion of Taiwan would invite automatic sanctions on China. (4/16)

The only thing that Taiwan has which the Chinese don't is cutting edge #semiconductor fabrication. China will find a way (bribe, borrow, steal, develop their own) to get this technology without invading Taiwan. China has huge incentives not to invite sanctions. (5/16)

Europe is de-industrializing fast because of its foolish ideological decision to #sanction Russian energy because of the #RussiaUkraineWar . Energy costs have skyrocketed because of the non-availability of cheap Russian gas and oil. (6/16)

Even the current spot gas rates of €50/MWh are more than three times what Europe was paying Russia for #NordStream gas. They are unaffordable for all of Europe's heavy industry - chemical, petro, metallurgical, glass. (7/16)

So all of them are moving out. Giants like ArcelorMittal have already closed down several metal processing plants in Europe last August. They will never reopen. These companies are looking for countries where energy supply is reliable and cheap. (8/16)

They will not pay 3x price for imported LNG from US, #Qatar, or #Norway. There are only two choices for these companies: the US, with its shale gas, and China, which is getting cheap and reliable energy from Russia. (9/16)

BASF already has a huge chemical complex in China. It has closed down many plants at its HQ Ludwigshafen facility, including one of two ammonia plants, and laid off 2,600 employees. Likely it will gradually move most capacity to China. (10/16)

So China will not want to jeopardize these relationships by entering the war directly on Russia's side or invading Taiwan. The West is imploding anyway because of its foolish sanctions on Russia: witness the food shortages in Europe. (11/16)

A major reason for these food shortages is the energy crunch in Europe. Europe was growing vegetables in winter in heated greenhouses powered by cheap Russian gas. No gas, no greenhouses, no vegetables. So China will bide its time and let the West collapse on its own. (12/16)

India is another major economy which will not take a clear stand on the war. India is heavily dependent on Russian weapons and spare parts for its military. It also needs Russian energy. So it cannot afford to antagonize Russia. (13/16)

But #India also has strong ties to the US. India's famed IT sector would collapse if the West imposed sanctions on India, so it has to tread warily. But India is pacifying the US by buying lots of American products. Tata's huge purchase of Boeing planes is an example. (14/16)

India is also buying a lot of American military equipment. That's why the US is not sanctioning India despite India buying weapons and oil from Russia. That's why India cannot openly join the Russia-China alliance. It is not self-reliant, unlike China. (15/16)

Most of the countries in the #GlobalSouth have made similar pragmatic decisions. Many African countries are dependent on Russia for wheat. They cannot afford to criticize Russia openly; and they cannot openly side with Russia because US sanctions will be costly. (16/16)

@rattibha