Thread by @bctallis

There's been criticism of the detail (esp re #Poland, which has already delivered Leos) - but @JeremyCliffe's main point is right.
▶️I'd actually take it further (it's not about #Germany but about #Ukraine), which is why we need to talk about #Finland🧵

newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023…

I've repeatedly praised #Finland's approach to standing up #Russia & have written on its own #Zeitenwende in joining #NATO.
I've also repeatedly praised @MarinSanna as a figurehead of #NeoIdealism - who's been wonderfully clear on how & why #Ukraine must win & RU must lose
/2

So, to be clear, this is not a general critique of🇫🇮or '🇫🇮 bashing'!
- BUT on the tank issue, I think #Finland has got it wrong.
- According to public info they have agreed to send
3 Patria Leopard2R heavy mine breaching tanks
-But NO #Leopard2 MBTs
ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
/3

This comes despite pressure on others to deliver #Leopard2 MBTs from some Finnish MPs (tho not Finland's government) & experts - who rightly argued that getting as many Leo2s to Ukraine as possible is a great way to help🇺🇦win - which is in the interest of all democracies.
/4

As we know, in the long saga of the #Leopard #MBTs, #Germany dragged its feet before finally agreeing to send 14 Leo2A6s.
Poland has *already delivered* some of the 14 2A4s it promised.
Spain offered 10
Canada 4
Portugal 3
/5
ecfr.eu/article/repair…

Other Leo2 operating countries have been harder to pin down since Germany's announcement opened what have turned out to tricklegates rather than floodgates.
- yes there are older Leo1s and refurbed T-72s also being sent
- & there will also be 14 UK Challenger2s & 31 US Abrams /6

BUT THIS REALLY ISN'T ENOUGH.
-It shows that major lessons still haven't been learned
- & crucial shifts in mindset have yet to take place.
⏩This has to change if we are to serve our interests & values, get #Ukraine what it needs to win & prepare ourselves for the future
/7

This is why I take #Finland as an example of a country that should give more tanks to #Ukraine
- *BECAUSE* it is the hardest case for this argument
- AND STILL the argument makes sense (IMO).
so stay with me and see what you think ...
/8

The case against:
- Finland has a 1340km border with #Russia that it has to defend.
- It is not (yet) a #NATO member but will defend NATO's border when it is.
- 🇫🇮 has 'only' 200 Leo2s
- which unlike in some countries (Hi 🇩🇪🇪🇸 & co!) are all exercised regularly & planned with
/9

Moreover, #Finland has a much admired defence plan, honed over 50 years & has carefully allocated its tanks along the border ...
BUT ... there is still IMO a strong case for it to give at least a platoon of tanks (4 Leo2s).
WHY?
/10

Despite the length of its border & tight allocation & well worked plan #Finland can spare a few tanks
BECAUSE
That plan was made for the world *before* Feb 2022, before.
- #Russia's forces became tied up, bogged down (& degraded) in #Ukraine

/11

This gives a window of opportunity in which 🇫🇮's defence plan can be •temporarily• relaxed.
There is NOT the same level of threat to #Finland's border while Russia is fighting in #Ukraine
- & no one seriously thinks RU would attack a future NATO & current UK treaty ally
/12

While RU is getting its ass handed to it in #Ukraine.
THE KEY POINT HERE IS
- if Finland can spare more tanks, so can everyone else. Showing that even in the hard case of 🇫🇮, there is an argument for providing more tanks, is useful in pushing other countries to do - much more
/13

Because #Ukraine's victory is THE essential fight for all of our national security right now.
- If 🇺🇦 doesn't win we are all in trouble - its in our capacity to make sure it does.
- The conflict has also shown the need for long-term re-arming of Europe incl. lots of tanks
/14

So we should all be ordering more tanks.
Including #Finland & every other country that needs to make a contribution to NATO and to defending democracy & the future of free societies.
- but we have a window to do that while our existing tanks are desperately needed by Ukraine /15

eg #Germany can spare many more tanks (its constitutional obligation for defence has been neglected for years but is now best served IN #Ukraine) - at least 14 more immediately & more after that.
#Spain needs to get its house in order and get way more than 10 of its 327 to UA
/16

Others like #Norway, #Denmark & the #Netherlands need to get off the fence and while its good that the former has ordered more tanks for itself, it should also give more to Ukraine NOW.
#UK can provide more Challenger 2s - at least 14 more immediately & potentially many more
/17

The key thing is the mindset shift that truly recognises that our most important current fight - where we absolutely have to win- is in #Ukraine.
That's why supplying 🇺🇦 is higher priority than e.g. restocking the Bundeswehr or rethinking UK armor for which there is longer.
/18

If heavily defeated & substantially degraded in #Ukraine, #Russia will not be able to attack anyone for a long time. This buys us more time to properly re-arm rather than muddling through with what we've got.
That is time we should buy ourselves BY SUPPLYING UKRAINE TO WIN.
/19

There are many countries that could send more tanks - even. US but it has to start with a shift in mindset.

As clearly stated here:
“If we want something to change, we need to change something.”
- its started but now we need to complete that shift.
/20
economist.com/europe/2023/03…

So, sorry #Finland, for using you as the hard - case example, but if you can do it, everyone can.
- & as we've seen in the tank debates, the power of example & removal of symbolic obstacles is essential
(things really moved after PL & UK committed).
- So let's #ArmUkraineNow
/21

Getting Ukraine the tanks it needs to win is essential - but I want to really hammer out this discussion to see what I've missed or got wrong - beyond hyper cautiousness & conservative thinking why shouldn't e.g. Finland give tanks to Ukraine? and how could that be changed?
/END

PS -I know this 🧵will piss off a lot of (mil) people, including friends of mine (@walberque already promised to clean me up off the floor, after he's joined in the beating) & @minna_alander & I have already been discussing this for ages
but I think its important so here we are.