Thread by @bctallis

Is #Germany's #Zeitenwende
a) "a Fundamental Change?"
b) 🇩🇪's emergence as a "Leading Power"?
c) "a mere buzzword"
d) "bullshit"
* its been described as all those things
- but how to judge & why does it matter? A 🧵 1/10
ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
📷Michael Lucan CC 3.0

Olaf #Scholz' 'turning point' speech in Feb '22 declared #Russia’s full-scale invasion of #Ukraine a 'watershed moment' (#Zeitenwende") -something happening to #Germany & others- but also set out the Zeitenwende as a task for🇩🇪 to develop new capabilities & a new approach.
2/10

There were 5 key elements in this initial framing (broadly speaking):
1) Support for #Ukraine
2) Bolstering #Germany's Defence
3) Diversification of Energy Supply (esp away from🇷🇺!)
4) A New Approach to Authoritarian States
5) Getting 🇩🇪's role in the #EU, #NATO &🌍right
3/10

But how to evaluate the changes that have been made in each of these areas?
Based on many discussions in the last 14 months, including with the @dgapev #ActionGroup #Zeitenwende & a lot of analytical & interpretive work, I proposed a framework
ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
4/10

Across the policy fields there are at least 4 dimensions of the #Zeitenwende to consider:
I) Ambition: Does the go far enough?
II) Depth: Is the change sustainable in polity & public?
III) Speed: Is is fast enough?
IV) International Awareness: is it conducted with partners?
5/10

You can read my assessment of each field in this piece
ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
but overall, while its not just 'a buzzword' or 'bullshit', nor is it yet a 'fundamental change'.
Paraphrasing William Gibson, I'd say
the #Zeitenwende is here, but (very) unevenly distributed.

6/10

This has caused difficulties for #Germany, not least as this inconsistency has frustrated partners & with regard to support for #Ukraine It has cost lives.
This means that there is major unfinished business in the #Zeitwende that Berlin cannot put off for much longer ...
7/10

Berlin must make geostrategic choices over the nature of its power, leadership, values, interests, & geopolitical vision -which will then be shaped in practice by how are accepted by others—or not. In other words, it is about #Germany’s identity as an international actor.
8/10

The soon to be released National Security Strategy will be an important step - but its how #Germany will walk its talk (as well as how good that talk is) that will matter. How it relates to European & Transatlantic partners (& how it opposes adversaries) will be key. 9/10

Whichever world #Germany decides it wants to pursue, it doesn't have all the time in world to decide. Partners are getting impatient & the🌍 refuses to move at 'Deutschlandgeschwindigkeit'.
It's time to make the most of the #Zeitenwende.
More here
👉ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
10/10