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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
May 5 • 4 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Turkey conducted a raid on ISIS in Jinderes, northwestern Syria, on April 28 that likely resulted in the death of an ISIS leader, but not the group’s “caliph.” Read this week's Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update here: criticalthreats.org/analysis/salaf… (1/4)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip #Erdogan claimed Turkey killed IS “#caliph” Abu al Hussein al Husseini al Qurayshi during the raid. #US officials said they could not confirm the raid's target was the #IS "caliph." (2/4)
#Erdogan may seek to inflate his military successes in #Syria to improve his standing ahead of #Turkey’s presidential election on May 14. The Turkish president is currently losing according to election polls.
The successful elimination of the #ISIS “caliph” would give Erdogan a verifiable success against #terrorists that he has been unable to achieve through another incursion into Syrian Democratic Forces (#SDF) territory or the elimination of the SDF leadership. (4/4)

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
May 6
The #Russian MoD appears to have deprioritized the #Bakhmut offensive to defend against an anticipated #Ukrainian counteroffensive, putting the #Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in a difficult position. The latest from @TheStudyofWar & CTP: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 5. 2/6 Image
#Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on May 5. #Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on May 5. 3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 5
NEW | Attacks on #Iranian clerics increased during the past month, which may reflect broader public antipathy to the regime's sociocultural and economic policies. Today's update from CTP & @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/5
Iranian leadership is signaling greater cohesion among #Palestinian resistance factions, likely to support their integration into the Axis of Resistance. 2/5
#Iraq-i Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani may replace Popular Mobilization Authority Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh according to Iranian-backed Telegram channel Sabreen. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 5
NEW | Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:

criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line. ImageImage
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast. Image
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 5
#Raisi is the first #Iranian president to visit #Syria in over a decade. What’s changed and what are the implications for #Iran’s domestic and regional goals? Read the latest from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: (1/8)

criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
#Raisi’s visit signals that #Iran is aiming to leverage political and economic developments in #Syria to improve its domestic economy and advance its regional objectives. (2/8)
#Iran faces a significant economic challenge at home. The #rial recently reached 556,500 rials to one US dollar, marking a 10% reduction in value within the past month. (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 4
NEW | @brian_cartr: The Turkish raid on an alleged ISIS safe house in NW Syria on Apr 28 likely killed an ISIS leader, but not the caliph. Targeting ISIS leadership is helpful, but it fails to address the group’s ability to embed itself within local populations. Read the update… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… ImageImageImage
@brian_cartr The #alQaeda and #IslamicState networks in Africa will likely seek to use the #Sudan conflict to improve their position on the continent. Numerous inmates escaped from a prison in #Khartoum city beginning on April 22 amid clashes between Sudan’s two warring factions. Image
@kathryn__tyson: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (#TTP) militants based in #Afghanistan continue to direct TTP activities in #Pakistan-i cities far outside of TTP’s recent attack zones. Image
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 4
NEW | Russia accused Ukraine of conducting a drone strike against the Kremlin. Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian audience and set conditions for wider societal mobilization. Today's update from @TheStudyofWar and CTP:… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
@TheStudyofWar Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Kreminna on May 3. Image
Russian forces continued to make gains in and around Bakhmut as of May 3. Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on May 3. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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