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Hanna Notte Profile picture
@HannaNotte
Jun 21 • 9 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I don't think I've ever seen the Russian strategic community engage in such intense public debate over nuclear use as over the past 1 week.

Here a summary of all contributions, for those who missed it:

(Others, feel free to add pieces I left out to this thread!)
1) Sergey Karaganov, 13.06.2023, "A Difficult but Necessary Decision"
eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/a-dif…
2) Dmitri Trenin, 20.06.2023, "The Ukraine Crisis and Nuclear Weapons" (in RUS) globalaffairs.ru/articles/ukrai…
3) Ivan Timofeev, 20.06.2023, "A Preemptive Nuclear Strike? No!"
eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/a-pre…
4) Alexey Arbatov, 19.06.2023, "A Preemptive Strike of Retribution"
novayagazeta.ru/articles/2023/…
5) Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov (not an expert of course, but an official), 20.06.2023, Speech at PIR Center, pircenter.org/news/vystuplen…
6) Alexey Arbatov, @KomissarWhipla, Konstantin Bogdanov, 21.06.2023, "Nuclear war is a bad way to solve problems" (in RUS) kommersant.ru/doc/6055340
7) Fyodor Lukyanov, 21.06.2023, "Why we can't "sober up the West" with a nuclear bomb" (in RUS) globalaffairs.ru/articles/otrez…
8) And on Karaganov's piece, and Putin's flippant remarks on nuclear arms control in St. Petersburg last week, @ElenaChernenko for @kommersant, 20.06.2023, kommersant.ru/doc/6055357

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More from @HannaNotte

Hanna Notte Profile picture
Feb 21
Last yr #UkraineWar became the organizing principle of Russian foreign policy

➡️7 trends
1 Full turn to non-West
2 China’s junior partner
3 Less leverage vis middle powers
4 Struggle in the neighbourhood
5 Russia MFA sidelined
6 Wagner normalized
7 End of compartmentalization
🧵
1. Full turn to the non-West:
Judging its break with the West to be total & irreversible, Russia's leadership has intensified its (pre-existing) turn to #MENA, #Africa, #LATAM, #Asia-Pacific.

Shunned & sanctioned, Russia needs to make up for losses wherever it can... (2/22)
This year, Lavrov already visited 8 African states, Iraq, & hosted Pakistani & Egyptian FMs.

Russia's push to expand engagement does resonate.
Last spring, #MENA states for instance refused to take the West’s side vs Russia - for complex reasons: docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA… (3/22)
Read 23 tweets
Hanna Notte Profile picture
Jan 26
At Conference of Disarmament in Geneva yday, #Russia slightly more conciliatory on #NewSTART:

-"Important" that treaty continues to operate
-This fact means its parties "share an understanding of the risks emanating from a situation of strategic uncertainty and unpredictability"
-#NewSTART "keeps a window of opportunity open" for continued dialogue on strategic stability, with a focus on developing a possible agreement to replace it.
-US-RUS understandings reached in Geneva (2021) "retain the potential for the resumption and development of a comprehensive and substantive dialogue on future arms control, incl. involving all key players."
Read 4 tweets
Hanna Notte Profile picture
Jan 26
#Russian reactions to the #Leopard2 going to #Ukraine.

An OPEN THREAD 🧵
/1 RUS embassy in Germany: The decision will bring “permanent escalation”, “battle tanks with German crosses will again be sent to the ‘eastern front’ which will inevitably lead to the deaths of not only Russian soldiers, but also the civilian population” aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/25…
/2 Maria Zakharova on her Telegram account: the German decision confirms that this is a “pre-planned war” against #Russia

euronews.com/my-europe/2023…
Read 13 tweets
Hanna Notte Profile picture
Oct 6, 2022
Not making headlines, the @OPCW Executive Council is in session this week.

Despite zero progress in clarification on the #Navalny poisoning - with #Russia issuing denials & accusations - #Western states seem to have decided NOT to up the ante vis-a-vis Russia at this time..(1/5)
... unlike some have called for @StrickerNonpro: fdd.org/analysis/2022/…

Looking at statements issued at the Council this week, many - US, UK, Finland, Romania, Latvia, Germany, etc - recall #Navalny poisoning & bemoan lack of #Russian cooperation to date,...(2/5)
..but there seems to be no push to escalate the issue (ie. initiate procedures similar to those that led to #Syria's suspension from #OPCW last year).

I wonder why.

Desire not to further add to pile of problems with #Russia? Keep minimum engagement in multilateral fora? (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Hanna Notte Profile picture
Oct 6, 2022
On #OPEC cuts: Narrative that "Saudi is screwing us (i.e. West) on oil" is part of the problem - as seen by many in the #MiddleEast.
They resent expectation that #Saudi "should help" keep prices low to a) mitigate fallout of #RussiaUkraineWar & b) cater to US domestic politics.
We may disagree, but do well to understand where they're coming from more broadly:

Since Feb, a reluctance in Gulf capitals (& elsewhere in #MiddleEast) to take action "with" the West "against" Russia in #RussiaUkraineWar (join sanctions, pump more oil) has had multiple layers:
1. A perception that the war is not “theirs” + a tendency to view it as fuelled in part by US/#NATO actions vis Russia (rather than as a Russian war of aggression against #Ukraine).
Unlike in the #West, the war does not register as a test for a “rules-based international order”
Read 8 tweets
Hanna Notte Profile picture
Aug 26, 2022
6 months into #Russia’s aggression against #Ukraine, there are mostly losers.

One potential winner is #Turkey, given 2nd-order effects of the war.

Since Feb, Ankara has gained some leverage vis-a-vis both #Russia and #NATO.

An attempt at a (complicated) balance sheet🧵(1/18)
Since Feb, #Turkey has attempted a careful balancing act on #RussiaUkraineWar:
-No sanctions against #Russia
-No boycott of Russian #gas
-#Erdogan engaging #Putin frequently & visibly
-Giving #Ukraine #BayraktarTB2
-Invoking Montreux Convention

I could go on and on (2/18)
As a result of
1) Turkey successfully mediating grain exports from Ukraine ports &
2) #Russia increasingly shunning traditional mediation platforms (Geneva),
Turkey is poised to become chief intermediary on operational issues re #RussiaUkraineWar
un.org/en/black-sea-g… (3/18)
Read 18 tweets

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