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Nicolai von Ondarza @NvOndarza
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Theresa May's new Op-Ed on #Brexit. telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/0…

Main proposal is to enshrine Brexit Day 29 March 2019 in UK law
This is again a strategic choice for internal reasons (fix Brexit date!) with devastating consequences for UK position in negotiations
It robs UK of the flexibility to extend negotiations for even a couple of months to ensure ratification, thereby increasing time pressure while UK is already with back at the wall
May also repeats promise of deep and special partnership and cut from EU law on Brexit day. Both are highly unrealistic
No serious negotiator - esp given the experience so far - expects full future agreement on UK-EU27 FTA by 2019. To repeat this illusion sets up May for failure.
The promise of full cut off from EU law by Brexit day is also completely contradictory with a status quo transition. To repeat this sets up May to either give up on transition or cave into EU again.
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More from @NvOndarza see all

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There is a growing sentiment in the UK that the EU is trying to force through 'Versailles-like terms' on it in the #Brexit negotiations, as expressed here by @pmdfoster:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

It is wrong and dangerous, not only because of the explosive historical analogy:
First, the current offer of the EU27 is not a 'bare bones FTA'.

CETA is the deepest FTA of the EU so far, and a UK-EU DCFTA would be deeper still.

It only now seems to be becoming clear that the single market is indeed much more than a free trade area.
Second, the 'Versailles' feeling feeds directly from the narrative that the UK could leave the EU without significant economic consequences.

It is not disrespectful of the #Brexit referendum to maintain that there is a trade-off between sovereignty and economic integration.
Read 3 tweets
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Given the political dynamics in #Italy, it is time to dust off my analysis from 2016 - 'Eurosceptics in Power' - on how Eurosceptic parties have influenced EU policy making both in the EP and when in nat. government

swp-berlin.org/en/publication…

Four points stand out in particular:
First, Italy is not the first instance of eurosceptic and/or populist parties entering national government.

Elite consensus on EU integration has been waning for a long time - reflecting the more sceptical attitude in many member states.
Second, in decision-making at the EU level they acted (largely) constructive. Voting data from the Council revealed no strong increase in vetos or 'no' votes after Eurosceptic parties entered nat. governments.

Exceptions to this are migration and institutional questions
Read 7 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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The problem at the heart of the #Brexit impasse is still whether the UK remain in a Customs Union with the EU.

Solve this and you largely solve Brexit. 1/Thread
Both the problem, and the failure to address it, is writ large in May's deal.

Officially UK is NOT joining a customs union....but in the absence of unicorns we clearly are.

Either via the Backstop or when its clear 'other arrangements' dont exist to fix the Irish border /2
Unfortunately May never had the courage to confront her Brexiteers over this fact. She fudged in Lancaster House, and kept fudging.

Recall this time last year, as the Irish reality dawned, senior peeps like @DLidington were flying kites on this.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Read 21 tweets
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Again.

Dear journalists - can you please drop the totally unhelpful and divisive reference to the 'War Cabinet' from your articles?

Thanks.

#Brexit #dontmentionthewar

@guardian @Telegraph @FXstreetNews @heraldscotland @Daily_Express @bpolitics @MailOnline
Why call it 'war cabinet' ?

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
And here.
heraldscotland.com/news/16974803.…
Read 11 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets
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1/ I'm slowly getting back into #Brexit stuff after time off in the last week or so.

I'm starting with David Davis's Telegraph piece from a couple of days ago: telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/0…

A quick thread about it.
2/ The title is interesting - it is: "How we will deliver the best Brexit in 2018". Davis's piece does not come close to answering that. The piece would more accurately be entitled "What I think the best Brexit looks like in 2018 (without asking the EU what they'd accept)"
3/ There's a bit of nerdy stuff at the start. I quote: "Donald Tusk has approved an immediate start to initial discussions on the future relationship (...) talks about the implementation period begin early in the New Year" I assume he means "Transition Period"?
Read 18 tweets
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1) Thread: #Brexit supporters -
40 minutes of your time

Brexit supporters out on Twitter, obviously many of us are now entrenched on either side, but perhaps, 40 minutes of your time will convince you that Brexit needs to be stopped.

Here goes:
2) firstly, take yourself back to this time. Boris Johnson in typical fashion selling an impossible consequence free #Brexit

No changes, no impacts, everything we wanted in a bespoke free trade agreement. This was the Vote Leave message.

telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/2…
3) no one from Vote Leave said it would be hard, or tricky, or drawn out.

Remember this from Farage in the European parliament
"No deal would be far worse for you than for us"

The EU would give us the deal we wanted, it was that simple

Read 15 tweets

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