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Rafael Behr @rafaelbehr
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Leavers: we can have benefits of single market outside EU.
EU: No you can't.
Leavers: [aside] They're just saying that. We'll get a special deal.
EU: We can hear you, and no, you won't.
Leavers: OK [aside] Just wait until ...
... German industry lobbies Merkel. We'll get special deal.
German industry: No, you won't.
Leavers: Yeah, but, sector-by-sector.
EU: Nope.
Leavers: OK, not actual single market, but still *special* deal
EU: No theguardian.com/politics/2017/…
Postscript: Merkel's only contribution to referendum campaign was to make this point. If you leave single market, as 3rd country, no special deals. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
It wasn't a secret then and enforcing it now isn't a punishment. It's just how the single market works.
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short thread on a conversation many people having in parliament: 1. everything proceeds from presumption that there is no majority for May's deal. Also, there is no majority for no deal ...
2. But there is no certain constitutional mechanism by which legislature can make executive do an international deal, so no deal is still the default setting.
2. (a) Grieve amendment gives Commons more say in what happens as no-deal looms but bottom line is that to be sure of avoiding no deal, you need a PM in No10 who is determined to avoid no deal. (May is probably one such, others maybe available).
Read 9 tweets
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UK over-estimation of potential for Brexit concessions by divide-and-rule of EU27 has been perhaps the most consistent and persistent miscalculation of past 2 years.
May and others just never quite get that key EU leaders (Macron, Merkel) see Brexit as existential challenge to European project, so put huge premium on solidarity at 27.
The far more effective pitch would be "UK wants to be part of strategic EU project as close friend on outside - we can be *better Europeans* after this is settled, but to achieve that you need to help us with a good deal."
Read 4 tweets

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So seems point 1 is an extension/elucidation of what @DLidington told #r4today on Dec 14.

FWIW am told by Brussels sources this is now focus of UK 'ask' on reassurances/ clarifications. To set clear aspiration date for trade deal to avoid backstop /1

@DLidington Which as @DavidHenigUK quickly pointed out is, to put it mildly, ambitious. /2

@DLidington @DavidHenigUK This is not least because even if you think a 'quick and dirty' deal is doable on some aspects (you hear some discussion of this) the UK would STILL need to know what it wanted.

And as the Political Declaration makes painfully clear, it doesn't know. Or cannot agree rather. /3
Read 20 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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OK, Today is huge. Today we find out how sensible our MPs are. Whether they'll let Brexit be a disaster, or whether they'll fight to protect British jobs, British Rights, and British Prosperity. #EUWithdrawalBill
Thread of relevant tweets:
Amendment: Keep our place in the Single Market?
Amendment: Should a Sovereign UK Parliament get a meaningful vote on the deal? Or did people vote for ANY deal.
#EUWithdrawalBill
Read 10 tweets
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This is gonna be long, but I think it's worth it. A well-regarded twitter poster, let’s call him Giorgio, has recently publish a thread stating among other things as follows. “The pathways to stopping or delaying Brexit are blocked.
But once the mandate is discharged, the pathways to UK rejoining, or being in a close association agreement with EU, within the single market and customs union, will be open, with no obstacles.”
This approach annoys me for two reasons, one because Giorgio seems to be attempting to cajole Remainers to put all activity on hold until we actually leave the #EU.
Read 17 tweets
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THREAD @davidmcw has made a daring proposal on making Ireland a “cutting-edge global leader”.
I will respond to the ideas below.
2. @davidmcw argues that Ireland has a problem in straddling the Atlanticist and EU horses and corporate tax in particular is emerging as an acute issue.
3. @davidmcw says Ireland “isn’t really a European economy at all”. Actually, Ireland sends about 16% of exports to US, 13% to UK and more than 40% to EU. That looks like a pretty European economy to me.
Read 25 tweets
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1/ Bear with, bear with. This is a long thread… EU Withdrawal is being debated in the H of C this week. MPs seem to think they have to support Brexit because it was “the will of the people”. Let’s just summarise the reasons why it’s not.
2/ The UK is a representative democracy. We pay MPs and peers to make intelligent decisions on our behalf. Referendums are not the way we generally do business, mainly because unlike an election, it’s hard to change our minds when the ‘facts’ change.
3/ MPs did not scrutinise the Referendum Bill properly. It was an advisory referendum that 'became' mandatory, & required a ‘simple majority’ of anything over 50% of the vote. Should have specified a ‘supermajority’ of 60% for such a profound change. politics.stackexchange.com/questions/1136…
Read 19 tweets

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