Thread by @MichaelSLinden

New analysis out TODAY shows that the Senate GOP tax bill would raise taxes on half of all families.

But, really, it's even worse than that. Once you include the spending-side changes, the bill looks even worse. THREAD TIME. 1/
rooseveltinstitute.org/who-really-pay…

The Senate tax bill doesn't only change taxes, it has also has big changes to spending, including cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and lots of other things. A full distributional analysis would include those cuts too. 2/

For example, here's the official JCT (cbo for tax) analysis of who gets a tax cut in 2019 under the Senate bill, and next to it is a FULLER distributional analysis that includes the SPENDING CUTS. 3/

In 2019, the Senate bill gives tiny tax cuts to the bottom and middle, larger ones to the rich. But once you incorporate the effects of the cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and many other programs that DIRECTLY result from the bill, those benefits turn negative for lots of people. 4/

By 2025, even before the expiration of most of the individual income tax changes, the comprehensive distribution is really bad for low and moderate income families. 5/

And in 2027, there are essentially no winners at all. Everyone ends up worse off, except for those at the very top. 6/

Again, these graphs incorporate both the tax side effects (including the estate tax) and the spending side effects. The GOP bill includes hundreds of billions of spending cuts and automatically triggers hundreds more. 7/

These charts do NOT include the effects of higher premiums in the health insurance market that would stem from the sneaky ACA repeal. 8/

If we included the higher premiums in the distributional analysis, it would look even worse, since 75% of families in the non-group market make less than $100,000. 9/

If you want more info on the methodology behind these charts, check out the full post at @rooseveltinst. 10/
rooseveltinstitute.org/who-really-pay…

Bottom line: Once you look at everything the GOP bill does and put it all together, the burden falls squarely and heavily on the bottom and the middle. Almost no one ends up better off (except maybe some millionaires).

We've got to stop this bill. /end