Was asked recently what I thought would shift on our understanding of climate over the next stage, say by 2025.
Here's an off-the-cuff list:
1. I think we will increasingly identify 2º C as a potentially catastrophic level of warming, even as our window to act in any way that would keep us under 2º C closes.
That is, that we will (/have) likely set in motion truly disastrous consequences, but we'll see that much worse consequences will arise the longer we delay disruptive climate action.
We'll start to get a grip on what the range of consequences actually is, and to understand the effectively existential risks ahead.
Industrial policy will be a thing smart people discuss more frequently.
Regions will compete with each other for position.
No one will ever come and put up a sign saying "This is abandoned."
Honestly amazed this hasn't happened yet.
It staggers on for the moment, but it's a zombie fuel, ready to drop.
By 2025 this will obvious in hindsight.
Many solutions will not be deployed as fast as they should be because they challenge the authority—or even the jobs—of incumbent professionals.
This will exacerbate intergenerational workplace conflict.
Helping them experientially grasp the workings of better futures is critical to positive change.)
These will become impossible to ignore as the situation grows more urgent.