Thread by @JenniferMerode

Michel Barnier interview extras - a few extras, a few thoughts - thread.

The most significant thing was MB ruling out David Davis’ vision of Canada +++, Theresa May’s “deep and special” bespoke deal. In the Brussels shop of models, countries can pick from what is on the shelf, not order custom-made.

MB wants agreements with UK on security and defence, judicial cooperation and aviation - he gave these as three examples of ‘pluses’. None are about economics, the bedrock of 1957 treaty.

The EU will be uncompromising on transition: UK must accept EU acquis lock, stock and barrel, including any new laws passed when British ministers and MEPs no longer at the table.

To be doubly sure, checked: this means EU’s four freedoms, including people, and sensitive areas, such as fisheries. MB said transition shd be “short” without extensions.

UK will not be able to implement trade agreements during transition period, but EC thinks this is moot point, arguing no country can finish talks w/o knowing final EU-UK deal.

MB said during transition the UK will be allowed to re-negotiate the 750 international agreements that fall when UK leaves EU.

Subtext: good luck with that.

Personally i think UK political debate hugely underestimates how politically toxic transition will be. UK outside looking in and has to accept “Brussels diktats” of lore for first time ever.

MB thinks EU27 unity can hold together - “it didn’t fall from the sky” - and sees his job as preserving that unity.

He thinks countries, including trad UK allies, will put single market above UK trade links.

NEW - MB thinks future EU-UK trade treaty can be agreed in two years - “Because we are not at starting from the same point as Canada, Korea or Japan.”

NEW - MB thinks future EU-UK trade treaty will be “mixed” agreement, i.e requiring votes in national and regional parliaments.

Interesting b/c European commission not a fan of mixed agreements. ECJ Singapore decision also underlined Brussels had wide competences on trade.

But MB sees EU-UK trade deal as mixed b/c it deals with sensitive questions of protecting Europe from (potential) tax competition and lower standards.

MB: “the response of the United Kingdom [the future] will determine our future relationship and determine the ratification of the future treaty.”

MB: "If the [British] red lines remain the same, [the UK] can diverge, but there will be consequences". Said EU will not accept regulatory competition on social rights, environment, consumer protection or financial stability.

NEW - MB thinks A50 cannot be reversed unilaterally by the UK - at odds with treaty author Lord Kerr. Perhaps only the European court of justice can decide this question....

In Brussels a50 reversal seen as political decision. Any UK decision to revoke would only work with backing of EU27. Hard to imagine countries would say no, but clock cannot wind back to 22 June 2016. Rebate surely be on the table.

Divorce issues: MB stuck with position of not naming numbers on Brexit financial settlement. "It is difficult to discuss numbers because some of the parameters will change."

Next steps in Brussels: ongoing technical seminars and EC to publish draft negotiating directives Wednesday.

Next crunch point = March summit when EU adopt guidelines on future.

There will be no trade deal on the day the UK leaves, or the day after. MB: "We will have a few months - March to October [2018] - to put that future relationship into the framework of a political declaration."

Last but not least, MB really does have a mug with the phrase ‘keep calm and negotiate’. ////