Thread by @JenniferMerode

It's tempting to think the EU has a big plan if MPs vote down the Brexit deal.

But it hasn’t: the EU will improvise to protect its well-known positions and interests, depending on the result.

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…

There is an EU summit two days after the meaningful vote. If, as everyone expects, parliament votes no, even the British gov and MPs won’t have much time to figure out next move, let alone the EU.

In the event of a No vote, I think we could see: a special EU27 summit “for optics” that decides little but shores up unity, usual respects and regrets, step-up no-deal planning if things look bad. But summit planners say *nothing has been decided*

Once again, the UK will be asked to define what it wants - the ball will be batted back to London.

British politics so volatile and unpredictable that EU diplomats are loath to speculate on hypotheticals.
But..

Could A50 be extended? Can’t imagine the EU27 would say no if there was a big shift in the UK position(customs union and single market, or another vote).

That doesn’t mean re-negotiating withdrawal agreement. Non-binding political declaration more likely.

But European elections are a much bigger hurdle than People’s Vote supporters think. Vast majority of EU sources I have spoken to think it legally and politically impossible for the UK to remain in EU after elections 23-6 May.

Minority view that A50 could be extended until end of June, i.e. before Europarl sits. But others aghast when I ask if UK could be in EU without taking part in elections. “Legally it’s easier to postpone the European elections… and that’s absurd,” said one source.