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Jennifer Rankin @JenniferMerode
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Brussels Brexit latest -- EU27 ministers met Michel Barnier and decided (no surprises) that negs on withdrawal agreement are finished.
"The question now is whether there is approval of this deal in the UK and the european parliament," said Austria's Gernot Blümel
Everyone bending over backwards not to say anything that might inflame UK domestic politics.
Barnier even used Brexiteer slogan 'take back control'
Full quote here
I am reminded of earlier EU comments: 'the UK wants to take back control, the EU wants to keep control'.

Judging by today's press conference, EU feels it has done so.
Extending transition period until 2022 discussed, but on first read-outs does not appear to be difficult for EU side.
"It's not a big issue for us,” said one source, "it is an issue for the UK".
Full text political declaration expected to be published tomorrow - it could be 14 pages.
Negotiations to begin 30 March 2019 on future partnership - aka 'easiest trade deal in human history'. Let's see.
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More from @JenniferMerode see all

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It's tempting to think the EU has a big plan if MPs vote down the Brexit deal.

But it hasn’t: the EU will improvise to protect its well-known positions and interests, depending on the result.

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
There is an EU summit two days after the meaningful vote. If, as everyone expects, parliament votes no, even the British gov and MPs won’t have much time to figure out next move, let alone the EU.
In the event of a No vote, I think we could see: a special EU27 summit “for optics” that decides little but shores up unity, usual respects and regrets, step-up no-deal planning if things look bad. But summit planners say *nothing has been decided*
Read 7 tweets
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Brussels Brexit latest: Michel Barnier has proposed extending the transition period until end 2022 - his offer on filling in the famous XX in the draft withdrawal agreement.

Neither agreed, nor rejected by EU27.
Not agreed by UK. EU still awaiting UK proposal.
IF it happened (a big IF) UK would be subject to EU rules 6.5 years after vote to leave.

How much would it cost? Don't know, but UK paid 9.6bn net to EU in 2016, which wd have been £14.5bn w/o rebate.
Barnier made this proposal at a meeting of EU27 ambos earlier today to discuss withdrawal agreement and political declaration.
Sounds fairly consensual, but...
Read 7 tweets
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Brussels update: Michel Barnier's deputy, Sabine Weyand, told EU ambassadors, Barnier ready to recommend "decisive progress" IF London gives the green light on the package.
EU ambassadors have not seen the texts of withdrawal agreement or political statement. They were taken into the room, but not revealed to them.
EU27 has not signed off on Brexit deal, but that was not the point of today's meeting. It was an update on what negotiators have agreed at technical level.
EU27 will want to read that text very carefully in coming days.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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#Brexit: Theresa May presenta le alternative dopo che il governo ha dato il suo consenso all'accordo con l'Ue.

1) Il mio accordo
2) Brexit senza accordo
3) Nessuna Brexit

Tutto come previsto.
May: l'intesa del governo è un "passo decisivo che ci permette di andare avanti e finalizzare l'accordo" con l'Ue -> abbiamo rischiato grosso

"E' una decisione che è fermamente nell'interesse nazionale" -> caos no-deal

Ci sono "di fronte giorni difficili" -> Camera dei Comuni
NIgel Farage: il peggior accordo della storia. Tutti i ministri Brexiteers si dimettano subito
Read 12 tweets
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The #Brexit tunnellers are tunnelling in pursuit of that elusive crock of gold - a deal.

What are they trying to finesse? How are they trying to close a deal? Here's what I know after chats with both sides. 1/Thread
As we all know, "it's the backstop, stupid" that is the problem.

But more specifically, how long the backstop lasts, and whether the UK can ever leave it.

This is the crux of the matter. /2
Last week was a big step forward, with the EU tentatively agreeing to write an all-UK customs arrangement *into* the Withdrawal Agreement.

So not a promise to do this in the future, but an operable text that requires no subsequent additions to function. /3
Read 16 tweets
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EU diplomats shrug at what they view as U.K. hysteria over Canada+ or Chequers #Brexit debate. The EU says the choice was never the UK’s alone 1
EU viewsChequers as a U.K. government position. Not an end in itself. Brussels aim: to navigate between Chequers and EU red lines.. 2
Accusation I often hear in Brussels is that U.K. Brexit negotiators are fine wordsmiths but that there’s often little meaning behind the words 3
Read 19 tweets
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Could the Vote Leave overspend have swung the EU referendum?
- A thread combining #Brexit and #AdvertisingEffectiveness analysis – conducted in a personal capacity.

Here goes…
Thanks to the work of journalists like @carolecadwalla , the @CommonsCMS Fake News investigation and @ElectoralCommUK, we now have more insight into the advertising metrics from campaigns run on Facebook during the EU referendum on behalf of Vote Leave
The @ElectoralCommUK found that Vote Leave “worked to a common plan” with BeLeave and thus exceeded its statutory spending limit -
electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/…
Read 23 tweets
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1. The outcome of #Brexit, assuming we can get as far as a withdrawal agreement without unleashing Ragnarok will depend on whether the UK is capable of absorbing a few basic facts. (thread)
2. Theresa May will have a stack of letters on her desk from most of the multinationals operating in the UK and they will all be saying much the same thing - they need continued participation in EU regulatory systems if they are to continue investing in the UK.
3. Upon which depends a number of secondary and tertiary industries where we'd be looking at shedding over a million jobs as a starter for ten. How May responds to this depends entirely on what sort of poison she's being fed by her closest advisers - and who is informing them.
Read 20 tweets

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