Thread by @faisalislam

Brexit economic impact assessments on leaving the Single MArket and Customs Union just published -
by @MayorofLondon ... for whole of UK, not just London:

news.sky.com/story/brexit-c…

Study suggests a 3% hit by 2030 across UK from leaving Single MArket and Customs Union without transition, 2% in London, alongside four other “softer” scenarios”, with a 500,000 hit to jobs, 87k in London

Also provides the first new quantitative assessment of the impact on various key sectors, and was commissioned by the MAyor after the Government said they had not done such an assessment

Actually the impact is on the modest end of the assessments out there from before the referendum - more in line with IMF and Niesr than the Treasury (-7).. but shines a light on absence of such assessment from UK Government

5 scenarios are
1. Stay in CU/ SM
2. Leave SM
3. Leave CU
4. WTO terms
5. WTO terms with no transition

Tariffs applicable in scenarios 4 & 5:

More tariffs and non tariff barriers, assumed under WTO scenarios: (4 & 5)

And the risk to growth and employment by 2030 calculated in this new Brexit impact assessment from those five scenarios on customs union, single market, no transition.

Patrick Minford & Economists for Free Trade dispute the Mayoral analysis, saying it is repeating “Project Fear”