Thread by @cburniske

1/ Thus far, 2018 has been a rougher year for #bitcoin than 2014, which was the last prolonged bear market we had.

2/ While negative #PBOC commentary threw off #bitcoin at the end of 2013, it was news of the #MtGox hack in Feb 2014 that broke the market's back.

3/ Interestingly, just as negative state commentary first unsettled the #crypto market in 2013 (China), so too did negative state commentary first unsettle the market in 2017 (South Korea).

4/ The #crypto markets continue to feel wobbly at the start of 2018, just as they were wobbly at the start of 2014. February was a bad month then, February could be a bad month now if we get a #MtGox style calamitous event.

5/ Fun #crypto fact for relief: @twobitidiot was the person who originally broke the news around the #MtGox hack.

6/ If we instead look at #bitcoin's price action since peak prices, again we see that the drawdown thus far in 2017/2018 has been worse than what we saw in 2013/2014.

7/ Peak $BTC price in 2013: ~$1240 (Dec 4)
Peak price in 2017: $19,350 (Dec 16)
By 1/26/14, down 25% from that 2013 peak
Currently down 45% from the 2017 peak

8/ All of that said, the #crypto markets are extremely different in 2018 than they were in 2014 from liquidity to # of exchanges to quality of exchanges to # of participants to developer activity, etc etc etc

9/ So while the current #crypto market setup is grim, I don't expect us to suffer in 2018 the way people did in 2014. If you're in it for the long haul, then you shouldn't care -- prob best to not even look @CoinMarketCap @onchainfx etc.

10/ Here's the link to my spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Yes, it's messy but it's only the graphs that need to look pretty 🙂

11/ Should add too, all data from @CryptoCompare: cryptocompare.com/coins/btc/char…