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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Markets are looking ... interesting. How worried should we be? I'd say that a number of asset classes look richly priced, but not on a par with recent bubbles. 1/
First, stocks and bonds. Here's Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio and long-term bond rates. PE is high but not 2000 high; might make sense given low interest rates, although bond prices also a question. 2/
One worry is that stocks are priced for high growth but interest rates for low growth. In that case we could have rocky times ahead. But it doesn't scream bubble the way it did in the dotcom era 3/
Housing also looking a bit frothy, although again low interest rates may partially justify. Here's the ratio of the Case-Shiller index to the index of owner-occupied rent, again high but not on par with last bubble 4/
Slightly worrisome that consumers have been spending as if only good news lies ahead, with savings rate down to eve-of-Great Recession lows 5/
So we could have a significant setback if stock/real estate both turn out to be bubbles and burst, and overstretched consumers pull back. Doesn't look that bad, however, as long as the policy response is good. And we have high confidence in current policymakers. Oh, wait 6/
Be afraid. Be very afraid. 7/
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