Thread by @guga31bb

Passing is more efficient than rushing, so why do NFL teams run so often? I'm going to run through some common answers to this question that have proven to be unsupported by data 1/

Explanation 1: a successful/high volume rushing game takes pressure off the QB, making it easier to pass efficiently.

@NathanE11 looked at this and found it's not true hawkblogger.com/2017/09/relati… 2/

Explanation 2: Running early leads to bigger runs or passes later in the game (the "establish the run" argument)

@SeanFromSeabeck looked at this and found it's not true fieldgulls.com/2018/1/3/16808… 3/

Explanation 3: Rushing yards are worth more than passing yards (the Pete Carroll special)

I looked at this and couldn't find any evidence supporting it 4/

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Explanation 4: Teams need to run to set up play-action

Again, there's no evidence that this is true footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/… 5/

So either there's an answer that we're missing (certainly possible!), or NFL teams and coaches are crazy (also possible!). 6/

If there's something we're missing, I'd like to hear it, so please bring forth your **testable** hypotheses 7/7 END

Thanks to everyone for your responses/suggestions- twitter is great for idea generation!

My mentions are in tatters

Explanation 5: when teams throw more, passing becomes harder.

I looked at this last year on FP-
there's no relationship between a QB's season-long volume & efficiency at the levels teams currently throw footballperspective.com/guest-post-pas…