Thread by @SharpFootball

I have a pretty unbelievable story to share regarding the 2017 Colts. This team has largely been forgotten, because they didn't have Andrew Luck & the coaching staff was fired after the season. This is a story about the consequences of horrendous decision making.

The 2017 Colts finished as the 3rd worst team in the league, per the standings, and they won only 4 games all season.

But in their 16-game season, the Colts trailed at halftime in only 6 games. They held halftime leads in 9 games. Yet they went 2-7 in games they led at halftime.

The 2017 Colts are the ONLY team in the last 27 years to lose at least 7 games which they led at halftime.

Their leads didn’t mysteriously evaporate in the 3rd quarter. The Colts led through three quarters in 9 games.

The 2017 Colts are the ONLY team in the last 20 years to hold a lead entering the 4th quarter in at least 9 games, but win no more than 4 games.

Last year, 25 of 32 teams lost no more than one game when leading entering the 4th quarter, and roughly 35% of them won every game. Six teams lost two games when entering the 4th quarter with a lead. The only team to lose more than twice was the Colts, who lost FIVE times.

Last year, a total of five teams held a lead entering the 4th quarter in exactly 9 games. Every single team posted a winning record (aside from the Colts):
• Jaguars (10 wins)
• Chiefs (10 wins)
• Falcons (10 wins)
• Chargers (9 wins)
• Colts (4 wins)

Last year, the only teams to post 4 or fewer wins on the year led after the 4th quarter in an avg of only 2.7 games (aside from the Colts):
•Browns (0 Ws, up thru 3Q in 1 gm)
•Giants (3 Ws, up thru 3Q in 4)
•Texans (4 Ws, up thru 3Q in 3)
•Colts (4 Ws, up thru 3Q in 9)

In their first 11 games of the season, the Colts led entering the 4th quarter in 8 games. The only two teams that led entering the 4th quarter more than 8 games (through 11) were the Super Bowl Champion Eagles and the Super Bowl runner-up Patriots.

Although they led entering the 4th quarter in 8 of their first 11 games, the Colts did not start the year 8-3. Instead, the Colts won only 3 of these games. They lost 5 games by blowing leads in the 4th quarter, to drop to 3-8 on the season.

The Colts led by one-score entering the 4th quarter in 6 games, but won just one of six. They were down by one-score entering the 4th quarter in 2 games and lost both. They were 1-7 in games within one-score entering the 4th quarter, despite leading 6 of these entering the 4th.

Clearly the 2017 Colts were not a great team. But terrible teams are unable to consistently build leads into halftime and into the 4th quarter, like the Colts were routinely able to do. "Something" happened in the 4th quarter to cause such disasterous results. Buckle up...

I'll interrupt to add that this type of analysis is exactly what I do on all 32 teams in my book writing process. The 2018 Football Preview book is in process, and will be out this summer. But this couldn't wait. This was just too gross to lock up for 4 more months.

We're going to get into the dirty details of 4th quarter decision making, play calls & more. This was a large factor in the reason that the Colts blew so many 4th quarter leads. I'll put all of this into an article later, to compliment this thread.

On 1D in the 4Q, if a team is in a one-score game, they run the ball 53% of the time. The Colts ran the ball 64% of the time, 3rd most in the NFL. This despite the fact that on 1D runs they recorded a 35% success rate (2.5 YPC) vs a 53% success rate (7.8 YPA) on 1D passes.

On these 4th quarter runs, Frank Gore posted just a 30% success rate. A younger, fresher Marlon Mack recorded a 57% success rate, but received 1/3rd the carries as Gore, who was worn down by taking on a lot of carries through 3 quarters.

On 1st down in the 4th quarter, when winning by 1 score, the Colts ran the ball 79% of the time and recorded a 42% success rate on these runs (2.6 YPC). However, on their 1st down passes, they recorded a 100% success rate with 22.0 YPA.

On 1st down in the 4th quarter, when winning by 1 score, the Colts used 11 personnel (3 WRs) 30% of the time. The other 70%, they were in 12 or 13 personnel (1-2 WRs). ***If they had less than 3 WRs they went 100% run*** posting 2.4 YPC and a 38% success rate.

I used asterisks there to indicate a theme. A theme of predictability. A huge key to winning in the NFL is being unpredictable. If the opponent knows your tendencies, you are waging an uphill battle. Especially if your "tendencies" are acutally 100% "tells".

How about 1st downs when losing? On 1st down in the 4th quarter, if a team is losing they pass the ball 73% of the time on avg (27% run). But the Colts went 43% run, 2nd most in the NFL. The Rams were #1, but were successful on 57% of runs. The Colts were successful on just 32%.

Lets move on to 2nd down. On 2nd down in the 4th quarter when winning, if the Colts ***did not use 11 personnel (3 WRs) they went 100% run***. These runs averaged just 1.7 YPC.

Combining 1st & 2nd down in the 4th quarter, in a one-score game, the Colts ran the ball on 34 of 40 (85%) plays with 2 or fewer WRs. They avg'd just 2.0 YPC and a 29% success rate. The only passes IND threw here was when the game was tied or trailing, never when leading.

When not using 3WRs, they used 12 personnel on 95% of their plays, the highest reate in the league. Their 85% run rate from non-11 personnel was the 3rd highest in the league.

In the 4Q when playing with a lead, the Colts were the only team in the NFL to NEVER pass unless they had 3 WRs on the field on early downs. If they had a lead & anything less than 3 WRs on the field, they ran 100% of the time. They avg'd 2.1 YPC. There was ZERO threat to pass.

Bottom line: the 2017 Colts were the most predictable early down offense in the NFL in the 4th quarter of one-score games. But just when you think it couldn't, it gets worse...

On 3rd down with a 4th quarter lead, once again the Colts were 100% run unless they were in 11 personnel (3 WRs). These runs were so predictable, the Colts posted a 0% success rate and they gained an average of 0 YPC on these runs.

Combining every down in the 4th quarter, if the Colts were leading, they went 100% run unless they lined up in 11 personnel with 3 WRs. They were the only team in the NFL to go 100% run. With such predictability, these runs gained just 1.9 YPC and recorded a 38% success rate.

4th quarter predictability led to inefficient rushing, which severely hampered the Colts ability to win those 9 games they led entering the 4th quarter. But rushing alone wasn’t the sole cause for their horrible 4th quarter results.

The Colts were the only team playing with a 4th quarter lead to throw zero passing TDs and 2+ interceptions.

In the 4th quarter when leading, the Colts pass efficiency ranked 28th in the league, with only 29% of pass plays grading as successful (avg was 43%). Outside of the Colts 40-yard line, their passing success rate dropped to 21% (avg was 44%).

Why were the Colts so bad when passing with a 4th quarter lead? First, we need to understand the Colts were primarily a 11 personnel team when passing, which means 3 WRs. When passing, they used 3 WRs approximately 79% of the time and 2 or fewer WRs 21% of the time.

The Colts were substantially more efficient when passing from 2 or fewer WR sets:
•Using 3 WRs, they were successful on 43% of passes, delivered an 82 rating and averaged 6.8 YPA.
•Using 2 or fewer WRs, they delivered a 52% success rate, with a 91 rating and 7.8 YPA.

The Colts were 1 of only 6 teams to post a sub-45% passing success rate with 3+ WRs and over-50% passing success rate with 2 or fewer WRs.

The Colts were extremely successful when passing using 2 or fewer WRs with a lead in the first 3 quarters, recording an incredibly strong 58% success rate on those passes. That rate was 8% better than the NFL average.

But for whatever reason, when leading in the 4th quarter, the Colts NEVER attempted a pass using 2 or fewer WRs. They only used 3+ WRs. And on these 3+ WR attempts, the recorded a 33% success rate, 6.9 YPA and a 46.2 rating.

The Colts were completely predictable in a number of ways in the 4th quarter. They worked against themselves. They refused to pass out of their most successful personnel groupings for passing. Their predictability led to inefficiency, which caused hard-earned leads to slip away.

When their leads slipped away, why didn’t Colts come back to win when trailing by close margins in the 4th quarter? When down one score in the 4th quarter, the NFL average is 64% pass on early downs. When they do run the ball, the NFL average is 4.5 YPC and a 49% success rate.

When down one score in the 4Q, the Colts ran the ball 10% more than avg on early downs. This would only make sense if they were phenomenal when running. But they averaged just 1.9 YPC and posted a 19% success rate. Both were the WORST of any team in the NFL.

Meanwhile, on early down passes when down one score in the 4Q, the Colts averaged a 53% success rate (well above NFL average of 47%) & a 104 passer rating (well above the NFL average of 80). Choosing to run 10% above average & sacrificing such value was extremely unwise.

Here is a look at the overall play calling from the Colts in 2017, courtesy of sharpfootballstats.com/playcalling-te…
Far too much: Gore on 1st, Gore on 2nd, hope TY Hilton bails us out on 3rd down. Tons of red in the "frequent" column. Lots of other possibilities that weren't explored enough.

The sad part is, the Colts probably didn't even realize or measure the impact of their 4th quarter play calling. It was far worse than they could have imagined. My guess is they had no idea that they NEVER passed while maintaining a 4th qtr lead without 3 WRs on the field.

They likewise probably had no idea that the only teams to enter the 4Q with a lead more often than themselves (through week 12) faced each other in this year's Super Bowl: the Eagles & Patriots.

It's unfortunate to sit back now and realize that many of these 4th quarter leads which became losses were avoidable with stronger attention to detail and a better focus on analytics.

Often time fans and media are quick to place blame on players making a mistake on the field, without realizing the play call wasn't optimal to begin with, and majority blame should shift elsewhere. Understanding responsibility for the error is essential to correcting it.

I would have saved all of this for my book, but I don't think enough people viewed the 2017 Colts in this light, and I didn't want to sit on this until the 2018 Football Preview book publishes in June. I'll put this thread into an article tonight for easier digestion.

As promised, I wrote an article which incorporated a lot of this thread and added some additional thoughts / information. If you prefer an article as opposed to a Twitter thread -> The Unbelievable Story of the 2017 Colts: sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/the-…