Thread: A few thoughts on @realDonaldTrump’s decision to put the US in non-compliance with its commitments under the #IranDeal
1. The reaction by the deal’s other signatories has been stronger and more unanimous than some thought in Washington. There were even rumors that the Europeans had caved at the last minute to Trump’s maximalist demands. Not true as explained here: mobile.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/wor…
2. Iran’s restraint isn’t surprising. The name of the game for Tehran was & remains: winning the international blame game. I expect Tehran to trigger the deal’s 35-day dispute resolution mechanism to drive this point home & get US condemned by other signatories to the deal.
3. Whether the new round of diplomacy with the P4+1 results in sufficient economic dividends for Iran to be able to continue demonstrating such restraint is an entirely different matter.
4. The silver lining I see here, however, is that by pulling out of the deal and entirely relying on its own unilateral sanctions, the US failed to use a powerful tool that could put the Europeans b/w a rock & a hard place: the UN sanctions that it could snap back on its own 
5. So as @CrisisGroup said last night: President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement is an irresponsible, unnecessary and serious blow to the JCPOA. If Europe and Iran can find a way to work together, however, it need not be fatal. crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
6. While there is no foolproof way to shield Iran’s economy completely from the repercussions of a U.S. exit, the E3 could develop a package whose political and economic value would be greater than the sum of its individual elements. crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
7. the risk, however, is that if the warmongers in DC and the region fail to unravel the deal, they are likely to try to provoke a regional escalation where tension/friction are at an all time high haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…
8/8 We continue to monitor these developments closely, and have increased our threat level of a potential clash in the Golan Heights to the highest level (again): crisisgroup.org/trigger-list/i…
