Let’s step back from the ongoing news flurries and take stock of the UK’s position in Brexit and global trade negotiations in another thread... 1/
All signs continue to point to the UK leaving the EU at the end of March 2019. No reversals or Article 50 extensions seem likely however much some may want that 2/
An implementation period until December 2020 remains almost certain. A no-deal outcome looks more likely than last week, but neither the UK or EU wants this, so it shouldn’t happen 3/
Extending the implementation period beyond 2020 seems more likely than not. There are legal problems (thanks @Usherwood), but it is unrealistic to expect a new deal to be in place by 2020, and the same aim of avoiding hard-Brexit will likely apply 4/
The long term UK-EU relationship remains difficult to predict. There is currently no option available that both sides will agree to prevent an Irish border 5/
It is difficult to conceive of all of this being fixed by June. The negotiation is in trouble. Likely but far from certain both sides will compromise somehow by September 6/
So there will be no certainty for business or individuals about post-March 2019 relations with the EU until at least September 7/
Similarly there is no certainty about whether EU trade deals definitely continue to apply to the UK after March 2019, and this is not completely linked to EU negotiations 8/
We have heard little recently about the UK’s position in the WTO post-2019. If an implementation period we presumably get through, but do we retain Government Procurement Agreement membership? 9/
The UK Government continues to talk of new trade deals with Australia, New Zealand, and the US. Their content and negotiability is unknown 10/
These countries and the US will have asks of the UK, which may be contradictory or painful. We don’t know how these will be handled 11/
The Government probably does not have a Parliamentary majority for its negotiating approach. So Parliament is not being given any significant votes right now 12/
The Government’s plan is presumably not to give Parliament significant votes until after September, at which point there won’t be time for these to be meaningful 13/
It would be fair to say that such a Government / Parliament relationship at this crucial time is one of the worst aspects of the current situation 14/
The UK will start to become a rule-taker at the end of March 2019. We will need to find ways to influence EU regulations. This has been little discussed 14/
Oops, 2 14s... moving on, anecdotally our global reputation has taken a hit because we are perceived to be uninterested in the asks of other countries. This will make future negotiations harder 15/
In summary 10 months out from leaving the EU we know very little. There were once brave words uttered like certainty. These have been largely forgotten. There’s no certainty right now 16/
You have to feel very sorry for businesses and individuals caught up in this uncertainty. Parliament and Government really need to do better 17/ ends
