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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 7 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Brexit and opinion round-up - two pieces particularly worthy of note. First @OwenJones84 in the Guardian reluctantly may come round to an EEA solution - as the least bad option allowing focus to move elsewhere theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Then @JGForsyth in a Spectator blog suggesting ERG MPs may need to think of swinging in behind the PMs deal if the choice may be that or no-Brexit - as I suggested earlier this week
Add in two other developments - from the Mirror that the PM may guarantee workers rights in the Brexit deal, and yesterday's news that the UK would voluntarily align to Single Market legislation as part of resolving Northern Ireland border mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
What we see, belatedly, is the growing recognition that to get a cross-party consensus on Brexit it is probably going to look something like single-market membership. Credit @NickBoles for noticing this about 6 months ago
The PM's deal doesn't as many have noticed preclude EEA membership - but as they have also noticed the deal doesn't preclude much, and means more years of UK-EU dominating political discourse - which is the last thing MPs want
The no-deal opinion increasingly lacks credibility - I'm not even going to read something headlines "Tory Remainers loathe Brexit because they don't trust themselves to govern" telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
The question remains how we get to any solution given the PMs determination that she has the only deal possible. That topic one suspects accounts for many of the clusters of MPs talking in shadows one sees in Parliament.... /ends
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Would it surprise you considerably that this Juncker / Tusk letter appears to change nothing? consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
Made very clear up front - we are not in a position to make changes... well we're not going to tell you otherwise
Temporarily could still mean 10 years, or probably 50. And the political declaration being of the same package doesn't mean much when it it still "of a different nature"
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Questioning common Brexit wisdom... If MPs supported the Norway option I think the Withdrawal Agreement will actually need substantial attention with particular reference to the numerous mentions of transition period
Take for example Article 128 Paragraph 5 which as I'm sure you're all aware deals with UK representation at expert meetings during the transition period. This would not be the right formulation for an EEA-bound country.
I don't think anyone has fully read and digested the Withdrawal Agreement in full, which should worry people more than it appears to. See also my earlier thought that the Irish backstop may be unimplementable
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Monday morning Brexit digest, and we start with the not-at-all surprising news of a cross-party group of MPs saying if the PM cannot find a consensus then it should fall to a group of MPs
This is a quite obvious development in a situation where there is no Parliamentary confidence in either the Prime Minister or the Leader of the Opposition, and both are failing to play their roles as laid down in the constitution. And it has been building.
The PM has if anything devalued her position further this morning by making a comparison to the Welsh referendum - where she personally opposed the outcome and voted against it. Off the scale incompetence....
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. Today in #Brexit tedium: You all saw the Barnier tweet reiterating that a Canada+++ is available and has been from the beginning. The ultra brexiters have taken that to mean an FTA plus whatever fiction they want tacked on to it.
2. They are dishonestly claiming this as a vindication of their position, conveniently ignoring that the EU will not agree to begin talks on any such agreement unless the UK signs up to an NI backstop. The EU is entirely consistent on this.
3. The ultas claim that a Canada+++ deal where they get to define what the plusses mean means that we don't need a backstop, Two problems here. The EU won;t agree to it and secondly, the details of their proposal has the same basic flaw as Chequers which the EU already declined.
Read 20 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. There's a subtle shift in tone from the ultras this morning who are now pushing for a Canada+ agreement. That + is going to have to do a lot of work because we'd still be subject to third country controls thus having a similarly damaging effect to no deal #Brexit.
2. Again the Brexiters are ducking the issue that to have frictionless trade you need full regulatory harmonisation. If we don't have that then Mrs May will have to sign the NI backstop. Chequers is an attempt to fudge this question but it is at least a nod to reality.
3. Mrs May has attempted to bridge the unbridgeable divide. Chequers is an attempt at regulatory alignment while maintaining a level of regulatory sovereignty - which is tolerable but not to the EU. They won't go for it.
Read 16 tweets
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The Leave Alliance
@LeaveHQ
1. The biggest problem with the #Brexit is a failure to separate the issues from the personalities. The issues are more complex than the average pundit is capable of absorbing - especially when they inhabit the Westminster bubble. (thread)
2. What we find is that the level of EU understanding is pitiful even among the think tanks who are supposed to be on top of these matters. Worse still are the populist pudnits who bang the drum for Brexit but make zero effort to understand the process.
3. The Leave Alliance would be a lot more popular if we simply simply churned out pleasing populist messages but if we want to get the best from Brexit then we have to look at the situation as it is rather than how we would wish it to be.
Read 21 tweets
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The Leave Alliance
@LeaveHQ
1. The Leave Alliance is the only campaign to have produced a workable comprehensive plan. Our recommendation is to leave via the EEA. This is not because we are soft brexiteers.

#Brexit thread.
2. We took the view that a vision without a plan is just a pipe dream. In beginning the analysis we first had to ask of the vision was achievable and relevant. That's where we first hit problems. The classic eurosceptic free trade mantra hasn't kept up with the times.
3. This is largely because free trade does not exist and has not existed for some time. A free trade deal is not free trade. It is regulated trade - and we find that in the era of globalisation the driver of intergovernment trade talks is regulatory harmonisation.
Read 25 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. The ultra brexiters are going all out for their WTO option #Brexit. They are gradually pushing the narrative that anything including a withdrawal agreement is a betrayal of Brexit and their thicko followers are buying it. This is dangerous.
2. As a Brexiter of long standing I know these players quite well. They are all indoctrinated in the ultra libertarian deregulation fantasies and the fact that just about every business group says they don't want deregulation it does not have any impact on their delusions.
3. As to their followers, these are the intellectually subnormal grunters who genuinely do think the Eu is a modern manifestation of the USSR. They're not well. Now don't get me wrong, I'm still a leaver but these people are fucking loony tunes.
Read 27 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Sir Ivan Rogers has crashed the Policy Scotland website with his 11,052 word #Brexit speech.

The link is below, but in the interim, here are some excerpts and some commentary - since, as you'd expect, it gives a shrewd account of where #Brexit is now/1

policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/blog-sir-ivan-…
First point is this speech is a plague on both houses - remainers and brexiteers - and a call for analysis based on what is possible, not on wishful thinking.

That will always lead to charges of 'defeatism', but while Rogers may be an Eeyore, he knows too much to be ignored /2
First substantive point. There has been a rise in 'no deal' rhetoric again - see @FraserNelson column for a synthesis of these renewed threats here

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

...But Rogers isn't buying.../3
Read 23 tweets

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