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On #PTAL: Those of u who follow the reported numbers at Perupetro Website (see below) to draw conclusions on PAL’s production, be mindful as u CANNOT cross read from reported numbers into actual production (or even worse, decline rates). Here is why:
Perupetro fiscalizes CRUDE oil for royalty calculations. TAL sell to Petroperu diluted oil with ~4% of natural gasoline. Sometimes Perupetro fails to report or, as TAL fiscaliza several times/day, fails to submit all reports; Hence e.g. 2 x 5k followed by 20k barrels.
In addition, there can & will be operational hiccups that are not production related which affect reported sales numbers. For instance, TAL had an issue at the pump station 10 days ago that forced them to slow production, which is why it averages only 10k bopd in Feb.
This has nothing to do with the type curve of the field or, as also tweeted by so called experts, higher decline rates. Instead, the wells are performing as expected. See our preliminary figures on that below. We will know more in 6 months and will provide am update.
Finally, mark my words: this mgmt team will deliver as promised from a field they understand intimately. That does not mean without hiccups. But the team will fix issues, get to 20k bpd exit rate by Dec 2020 and most likely keep this plateau for 2y. #TAL #PTAL
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