Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #emu

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Forex reserves supply should be matched by domestic money supply to counter inflation.
If NFA grows, the monetary base will grow
If NFA falls, the monetary base will fall
That is how a currency board system should work.
The local monetary policy is tied to an anchor currency.
The monetary base has two components
NFA Net Foreign Assets
NDA Net Domestic Assets
NDA +NFA = Monetary Base
What #Turkey needs is to #peg its currency to an anchor currency.
#Currency Peg can be fixed or crawling.
They can follow many examples, with or w/o capital #controls.
It can choose from an expansive list that includes Malaysia, Nigeria, Argentina, Hong Kong or those in the GCC.
Read 13 tweets
1/11 In a new article with Mark Dawson published in @RegGov_journal, we argue that the #EU's current approach to accountability reflects a regulatory bias towards the process of decision-making and interest mediation. 👇…
2/11 But the #EU is more than a regulatory state. We introduce the concept of the ‘para-regulatory state’ to describe increasing EU regulation in areas of core state powers that are both redistributive and politicized, e.g. fiscal policy, border control, police, public admin etc.
3/11 In these areas, we contend that the #EU requires a substantive notion of accountability, focused on the merit of policy decisions and their likely impact.
Read 11 tweets
Our Secretary-General @JimCloos1 is talking ALL THINGS #Strategic Autonomy with @iiea RIGHT NOW💪

@iiea is our Member Institute from 🇮🇪

You can follow the livestream on @YouTube or stay tuned here from some highlights of Jim's intervention

"All recent Euro-crises from the subprime mortgage crisis to the #COVID19 crisis originated outside the European Union, but hit us incredibly hard"

- @JimCloos1, TEPSA Secretary-Ge neral speaks to @iiea

"Firstly the economic crises highlighted the imbalance within the #EMU, the flaws of the 'no bailtout' clause, which meant richer countries could only intervene as a last resort, and that the @ecb was not properly empowered against crises"

- @JimCloos1, speaks to @iiea

Read 16 tweets
1/ Quick overview of the #Eurogroup deal on #EMU reform. Pretty much in line with expectations. That it took the whole night to agree on a pretty modest package shows how difficult it has become to even get to minimal compromises.
Voilà the main features:…
2/ First on the euro area budget: Ministers say they will work on an instrument for convergence and competitiveness if the summit asks them to. BUT: Stabilisation not included in that potential mandate. Instead, no agreement at all here. Interesting that France agreed to this.
3/ On ESM reform: Ministers say they can prepare the amendments to the ESM treaty by June 2019 - if the summit asks them to. So this is for the heads to confirm. Good that there is a deadline, otherwise other decisions would have been rather meaningless.
Read 9 tweets
1/ A couple of thoughts on an #EU/#EMU finance minister and why the @EU_Commission proposal puts the cart before the horse:
When people hear finance minister, they think of 2 functions in the national context: preparing and executing the budget and proposing legislation.
@EU_Commission 2/ COM proposes to transfer Eurogroup president and COM VP for Euro roles to a single FM with a Mogherini-like double hat. No new competences are added. That is a finance minister without a budget. And if it's the ECFIN portfolio, with very little scope to propose legislation.
3/ Hence the FM will already in its structure fall short of what people imagine when they hear finance minister. He/she cannot possibly match the expectations that come with the title. So first discussion should be € budget and competences, not title.
Read 5 tweets
1/ Some thoughts on the @EU_Commission proposal for a European Monetary Fund. General take:
- Proposal well-intended but will have at best little impact and could potentially endanger SRF backstop
- EMF is misnomer: proposal does not create EU equivalent to IMF
Let me explain:
@EU_Commission 2/ Regulation would transfer ESM basically as is into EU law, except adding a backstop for the SRF. DE veto intact, process to grant financial assistance with COM lead role same, ESM staff role is codified. EP gets reporting rights. Unanimity in Council and EP consent required.
@EU_Commission 3/ Two main implications:
- Practical impact very limited, only label at ESM doorbell changes and ESM staff becomes EU staff. Integration into EU law of course makes sense in principle for coherence and accountability reasons. But absolutely no urgency.
Read 6 tweets
1/ Out now: My overview guide on how to (not) reform the ESM.

- ESM reform no silver bullet for #EMU; can make € more stable (esp. backstop)
- ESM reform means in fact 4 separate debates, often connected politically but not really functionally:… Image
@ESM_Press @BMF_Bund @ecfin @ecb @IMFNews @jzettelmeyer @CharlesWyplosz @GuntramWolff 2/ - debate #1: what else to do with ESM funds (backstop, liquidity facility, rainy-day fund)?
- #2: do we need a rule for PSI in ESM programmes?
- #3: should the ESM move under the roof of Union law?
- #4: do we need an EMF (i.e. ESM staff role in crisis mgmt, surveillance)?
@ESM_Press @BMF_Bund @ecfin @ecb @IMFNews @jzettelmeyer @CharlesWyplosz @GuntramWolff 3/ Conclusion:
- ESM reform can make EMU more stable, but don't expect too much
- Reforming ESM shouldn't divert attention from fundamental questions (fiscal policies, institutional design)
- ESM move under Union law nice to have, but limited practical use and politically costly
Read 3 tweets
1/ A few thoughts on what the end of #Jamaika means from an #EMU perspective:
- Proposals on the table at the end were at best continuation of status quo. FDP and Greens had neutralized each other, so the classic position prevailed. Would have made progress almost impossible.
2/ - Any minority government (not likely but possible) would have very limited wiggle room on EMU matters given parliamentary prerogatives, esp. on programmes and on any change to EU and ESM treaties. Would make already-protracted process even more cubersome.
3/ - Expect campaign for snap elections to focus more on Europe, especially if @MartinSchulz running again. Opportunity for parties to get a real mandate on EU matters.
- But timing becomes an issue: After snap elections in spring, new government in summer, too close to EP elex
Read 4 tweets
1/ 🇫🇷 Le Maire says #EMU deepening is 4-step sequence:
1 Banking U/CMU/"fiscal convergence"
2 Strengthening ESM
3 Fiscal capacity/EZ budget
4 € FinMin
Seems prudent and like a bridge to 🇩🇪, but misses point that in Berlin many are comfortable even without completing step 1
2/ Also talk about strengthening ESM won't impress anyone here if it's not really about weakening COM, which I assume 🇫🇷 doesn't want. So making fiscal capacity and FinMin conditional on 🇩🇪-conpatible progress in BU and ESM areas means putting the former off forever.
3/ 🇫🇷 should insist on package that has something for everyone. And should look beyond EMU to find items to include in a compromise, cf. CAP, migration and the like.
Read 3 tweets

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